Peter's Blog

The American services engine came more than one point under expectations but stayed in the green by the slimmest of margins last month, even as price pressures roared back to life and trade frictions deepened. The Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.1 for July, just a whisker above […]

Gold’s momentum refused to cool in the second quarter of 2025, with total demand—over-the-counter trades included—hitting 1,249 tonnes, up 3 percent year-on-year. In dollar terms the jump was far more dramatic: US$132 billion changed hands, a 45 percent leap to an all-time quarterly record. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) afternoon fix set a fresh […]

The summer labor market is losing momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, barely budging overall employment since April and capping two straight months of sharp downward revisions. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent—on paper a healthy figure—yet a closer look shows […]

Gold prices refused to budge much last week, with the LBMA Gold Price PM settling Friday at $3,344 per ounce—just 0.3 percent below the prior close. That leaves the metal up a dazzling 28.6 percent year-to-date, still among 2025’s best-performing assets despite a flurry of trade headlines and political theatrics. Early gains driven by tariff […]

The once-red-hot U.S. labor market is cooling at the edges. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released July 29, shows total openings falling to 7.4 million in June—a 4.4 percent openings rate. Hiring was flat at 5.2 million, while total separations came in slightly lower at 5.1 million. […]

Consumers may be breathing a small sigh of relief, but they’re hardly celebrating. The University of Michigan’s latest “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” update, released Friday, shows the median expectation for inflation over the next 5 years dipping to 4.0 % in June after topping out at 4.4 % in April. While that is […]

Please note: the CoTs report was published 6/27/2025 for the period ending 6/24/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Last night, Peter took to YouTube for a special livestream on gold’s recent price action and a few headlines from early this week. He argues the mainstream media and retail investors seem to have lost sight of the metal’s explosive potential. While everyone else is busy hyping Bitcoin, the smart money is piling into gold, […]

Last week Peter joined Oliver Renick on his show, “Market on Close,” on the Schwab Network. They discuss gold’s stellar year in 2024 and where the metal is heading, and Peter also comments on the price of crude oil, treasury yields, and the Fed’s recent rate cut. 

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).