Peter's Blog

What Trump and Powell’s Tiff Shows About the Core of the Fed

Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower interest rates, thinking that a spiral of Keynesian growth can undo the damage he has wrought with tariffs and one of the most hands on governments economically in recent memory. Let alone the theoretical weakness of Trump’s stands, he is viewing the Fed in an unprecedented yet still […]

Job Openings Miss Expectations, Slip to 7.4 Million

The once-red-hot U.S. labor market is cooling at the edges. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released July 29, shows total openings falling to 7.4 million in June—a 4.4 percent openings rate. Hiring was flat at 5.2 million, while total separations came in slightly lower at 5.1 million. […]

The Mortgage Rate Myth: Why Cheap Money Won’t Fix Housing Affordability

President Trump’s insistence on lowering interest rates serves only the ever-growing spending state. Lower interest rates may relieve some price pressure in the housing market, but printing money is only going to make things worse in the long run.

13-Week Money Supply Slows into the Summer Months

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Fed Governor Waller Urges July Rate Cut

Christopher J. Waller says the central bank should not wait until autumn to ease policy. Speaking to the Money Marketeers of New York University on July 17th, he argued for a 25-basis-point trim to the federal-funds target range “in two weeks.” With growth fizzling, hiring sputtering, and tariffs muddying the inflation picture, Waller believes quick […]

June Inflation Higher Than Expected, Driven by Shelter

Spring’s brief lull in price pressure has faded. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.3 percent in June and 2.7 percent year over year, up from May’s 2.4 percent pace and higher than the 2.6% consensus forecast. Core CPI—excluding food and energy—advanced 0.2 percent on the month […]

Central Bankers vs. The Dollar

If Donald Trump has his way and recent reports are accurate, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is considering stepping down from his position. While extremely rare, Fed Chairs resigning before the end of their term isn’t entirely unheard of. Powell’s obligations would ordinarily extend to May 2026.

Get Ready for Big, Beautiful Inflation

As is the case with many new regulations, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had the opposite effect as what was implied by its name. President Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and bringing down prices.

Fed Governor Waller Defends $6.7 Trillion Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Dallas Fed podium Thursday to peel back the curtain on the central bank’s swollen balance sheet—and to argue that a slim-down is overdue but shouldn’t be draconian. Since 2007, Fed assets have ballooned from $870 billion (about 6 percent of U.S. GDP) to roughly $6.7 trillion, even […]

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]