Comex: Delivery Volume Remains Elevated but Inventories are not Impacted

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.

Gold

Delivery volumes for July were the second highest since May of 2025 when looking at minor delivery months. 13,123 contracts were delivered which is significantly higher than the 8,838 that were delivered in May of 2026.

Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volume

When looked at from a dollar amount perspective (rather than raw ounces), you can see that the amount delivered is the biggest July we have ever seen and nearly 35% higher than one year ago. Some of that is a reflection of higher prices compared to last July, prices have risen 20% over the last year. However, as shown above, almost 1100 more contracts were delivered this July compared to last July (nearly 10% increase).

Figure: 2 Notional Deliveries

Net new contracts (contracts that open and settle for immediate delivery) were fairly muted actually.

Figure: 3 Cumulative Net New Contracts

Despite elevated deliveries, not much gold was removed from the Comex vaults in July. Eligible amounts fell some while Registered was almost exactly flat. This is an odd situation. Three possible reasons for this could be:

1. Actual available inventories are much lower than the data suggests
2. Demand to take possession of metal has suddenly dried up
3. The current situation in the Middle East has prompted owners of gold to not re-locate their gold for now

It could be a combination of all three, but the increased delivery volume puts less credibility behind #2. The Comex is still not out of the woods and may be looking at another massive delivery request soon. If any part of #1 is true, then the market is much closer to seeing a dramatic turnaround.

Figure: 4 Inventory Data

Looking ahead to the August delivery period (a major month for gold), we see a contract that is slightly below the average of past months. The last 2 days of major contracts see so much volume that we cannot draw a meaningful forecast on what August delivery volumes will look like.

Figure: 5 Open Interest Countdown

With the recent drop in inventory, the open interest relative to physical stocks is the second highest it has been at this stage in the contract cycle. Only March last year surpassed the level this year.

Figure: 6 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Bottom line, delivery volumes remain elevated but the metal is staying in the vault (for now).

Silver

Silver has fully exited backwardation. This is when the spot price was above the futures price for most of Q4 2025 and into January.

Figure: 7 Spot vs Futures

Silver delivery volumes are in-line with recent trends. Below the peaks from 2025, above the low volumes in 2024, and matching to March but higher compared to May.

Figure: 8 Recent like-month delivery volume

Switching to notional values, and focusing on the month of July, produces the chart below. While last July saw almost the exact same number of deliveries, the notional value is much higher due to price.

Figure: 9 Notional Deliveries

Silver net new contracts were middle of the pack.

Figure: 10 Cumulative Net New Contracts

The amount of metal leaving the vaults went from extreme to nearly flat. There has actually been a little gain in Eligible inventories.

Figure: 11 Inventory Data

Registered metal shows an even bigger increase of inventories. This is the metal truly available for delivery and got very low as metal was flying out of the vaults in 2025. Inventory levels have increased from 76M ounces to 96M ounces since March of 2026.

Figure: 12 Inventory Data

As we approach August delivery, the silver contract is coming in quite weak.

Figure: 13 Open Interest Countdown

Even on a relative basis, it’s middle of the pack at best.

Figure: 14 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Conclusion

Last month saw a large difference between the behavior in gold and silver. This month saw the metals behaving quite similarly: strong physical demand but not showing up as a draw down in inventories.

The next two months should paint the picture more clearly, either physical delivery volume will start to fall or metal will start exiting the vaults again. If Comex truly is getting low on inventories and discouraging people from taking possession, that is a game it cannot play for much longer.