Physical Demand for Gold Remains Strong even while Silver Sees Slowing Delivery Volume

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.

Gold

Delivery volumes for June were elevated compared to the last major delivery month of April. We are not seeing the same delivery volumes from late 2025 and early 2026, but volume remains well above the 2024 levels. This shows continued physical demand despite the recent pressure on gold prices.

Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volume

When looked at from a dollar amount perspective (rather than raw ounces), you can see that the amount delivered is the biggest June we have ever seen and nearly 70% higher than one year ago. Some of that is a reflection of higher prices compared to last June, but there were also over 8,000 more contracts delivered this year. This shows genuine demand even at elevated prices.

Figure: 2 Notional Deliveries

Net new contracts (contracts that open and settle for immediate delivery) were the highest they have been all year and continued the entire time the price was pulling back.

Figure: 3 Cumulative Net New Contracts

With elevated deliveries, it is no surprise to see that metal has continued leaving the vaults. Albeit, the drawdown slowed some in June, but there was no adding to inventories. Physical supplies of gold continue to shrink.

Figure: 4 Inventory Data

Looking ahead to the July delivery period (a minor month for gold), we see a contract that is actually seeing increased action into the close. This further supports the narrative that demand for physical is increasing as the price comes down.

Figure: 5 Open Interest Countdown

With the recent drop in inventory, the open interest relative to physical stocks is the second highest it has been at this stage in the contract cycle. Only March last year surpassed the level this year.

Figure: 6 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Bottom line, buyers of physical continue to show up to take delivery of metal. This is price supportive in the long run.

Silver

Silver has fully exited backwardation. This is when the spot price was above the futures price for most of Q4 2025 and into January.

Figure: 7 Spot vs Futures

Unlike gold, silver is seeing much less interest with the smallest delivery volume since January 2025.

Figure: 8 Recent like-month delivery volume

Switching to notional values, and focusing on the month of June, produces the chart below. The elevated notional value here is due entirely to the higher silver price.

Figure: 9 Notional Deliveries

Silver net new contracts was non-existent in June.

Figure: 10 Cumulative Net New Contracts

The amount of metal leaving the vaults has also gone flat and even seen a slight uptick in the month of June.

Figure: 11 Inventory Data

Registered metal (metal available for delivery) saw a similar trend as Eligible metal (chart above).

Figure: 12 Inventory Data

As we approach July delivery, the silver contract is seeing very little action. Current open interest is the lowest it has been since at least 2024.

Figure: 13 Open Interest Countdown

On a relative basis, the open interest is around average.

Figure: 14 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Conclusion

Gold and silver are telling two very different stories. The massive physical demand we were seeing in silver over the last year has completely dissipated. The demand for gold remains robust though. While silver typically leads gold in things like price action, this is not a case where silver will lead gold. The heavy buyers of gold are very different than the buyers for physical silver.

The main point here is that physical demand for gold remains strong despite the price pull back and has even showed strength as the price has fallen further. While the technical price action is still a bit bearish, the physical market is showing this is a short-term pullback. Once the market realizes that Warsh is still in the same boat and unable to really go after inflation, this market is going to come roaring back. Use these pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate metal. That is what the big money is doing!