Peter's Blog

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a familiar warning in a speech in Anchorage on August 5th: price pressures remain stubborn. Citing a 3.7 percent annual rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index through June, Cook said flatly, “Inflation is too high.” Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, is running at […]

Americans earned more in June yet saved less, according to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent, or $54.9 billion, while disposable personal income (DPI) increased at the same pace. Consumers did not retain the additional income for long: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose […]

U.S. households grew more pessimistic in July, according to the latest data from the Conference Board, and investors responded by sending gold to yet another record. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June and continuing a decline that has persisted since late […]

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on July 29, opting for continuity even as price pressures refuse to cool. The 9-3 vote, only Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting as chairman, preserves a policy mix that pairs flat rates with what officials […]

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told an audience at Stanford University on July 16 that monetary policy is facing a “delicate balancing act,” as overlapping shocks from the Middle East conflict, post-pandemic imbalances, and newly erected trade barriers keep inflation above target and threaten to unmoor expectations. The remarks, delivered at the Stanford Institute […]

In his first appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took a firm stance, telling lawmakers that the central bank has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Warsh confirmed that June’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting left the federal-funds-rate target unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, […]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used a speech before the New York Association for Business Economics on July 13th to deliver one of his most direct warnings of the year: core inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Federal Open Market Committee may have to tighten again. After six months of relative calm, core […]

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its June 16 and 17 meeting, released this week, add detail to a decision markets absorbed weeks ago: the Committee held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous vote. That unanimity, however, masked real disagreement underneath. A few participants told colleagues they saw a […]