Peter's Blog

December CPI Pops 0.3%, Gold Brushes $4,600

After a two-month data void caused by Washington’s funding standoff, the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally dropped December’s Consumer Price Index—and the numbers refuse to play along with the “mission-accomplished” narrative on inflation. Headline CPI rose 0.3 percent for the month, lifting the index to 324 and pushing the yearly gain to 2.7 percent—still north […]

Metals Tell the Truth About the Economy

Gold and silver are sniffing out the inflationary regime. Rising together, even after pullbacks, the historic run in precious metals is part of a desperate SOS signal for the economy. The Fed isn’t the only one printing money. Trump is floating plans for 50-year mortgages and payments for veterans, seeking any justification for “stimulus” that […]

Federal Budget: Government Deficit Exceeds $1.6T in 2025

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of September, […]

October Trade Deficit Drops to Lowest Level since Great Financial Crisis

The Trade Deficit is one of the two components of the ‘twin deficits’; the other being the federal budget deficit. The trade deficit used to be a number that received a ton of attention in the 1980s and 1990s because it was determined to be a strong gauge of the strength and weakness in the […]

Jobs: Every Jobs Report in 2025 has Been Revised Lower

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Germany’s Painfully Boring Economic Decline

While it’s been known for many years that Germany’s economy is in poor health, the debate about the cause is quite contentious. Some claim that the government should have stepped in earlier while others claim that the government was the problem the whole time. Numerous German governments have tried to tackle this problem, but to […]

Jobs: The Economy Only Added 28k jobs from Jan-Jun

Note: This includes the Jobs report for November that was released on December 16th and the QCEW Report released on Dec 19th The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the […]

Fed Trims Rates Again—Gold Vaults Past $4,200 Anyway

In a hotly-anticipated announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee shaved its federal-funds target by another quarter point on December 10th, setting the range at 3.50 – 3.75 percent. Fed officials insist the U.S. economy is still expanding at a “moderate pace,” yet the same statement concedes that job gains have cooled and unemployment inched higher […]

Why the Government Isn’t Educating Productivity

President Trump recently classified a certain group of graduate degrees as non-professional degrees. This decision lowered the limit for Federal student loans for these programs. Whether one perceives this as a helpful reduction of spending or a political slight against social sciences, this example shows the government rationale regarding education. Education’s value is often evaluated […]

What Will Black Friday 2025 Tell Us About American Consumers?

Black Friday, the ultimate consumer holiday, has lost some of its luster in recent years as Americans become increasingly indebted, cash-strapped, and hamstrung by high inflation. Known as an all-out buying bonanza where shoppers flood retailers for deals on everything from TVs and toys to kitchen utensils, this year all signs point to a muted […]