Peter's Blog

Fed Minutes Show a Committee More Divided Than the 12–0 Vote Suggests

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its June 16 and 17 meeting, released this week, add detail to a decision markets absorbed weeks ago: the Committee held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous vote. That unanimity, however, masked real disagreement underneath. A few participants told colleagues they saw a […]

Workforce Shrinks by 720,000 While Gold Surges to $4,096

June’s Employment Situation report offered little comfort to households or policymakers. Headline non-farm payrolls grew by a scant 57,000, a figure that arrived alongside a combined 74,000 downward revision to April and May. The official unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, yet that improvement came only because 720,000 Americans exited the labor force. As […]

Job Openings Hold Steady at 7.6 Million, Uncertainty Continues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, and the report offered little new for markets to digest. Total openings in May held at 7.6 million, hires came in at 5.2 million, and separations totaled 5.1 million. The underlying rates (openings at 4.6%, hiring at 3.3%, […]

Household Survey Shows 500k Jobs Lost in June while Labor Force Participation Crashes to Multi-year lows

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth Hits Highest Level Since 2022

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

April CPI Surprise Sends Gold to $4,700 as Energy Costs Surge

April’s Consumer Price Index offered scant comfort to households or policymakers, with headline prices rising 0.6 percent for the month and 3.8 percent from a year earlier, according to Wednesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Though the monthly pace eased from March’s blistering 0.9 percent gain, the yearly rate accelerated, underscoring that the inflation fire […]

Peter Schiff: Jobs Are Worse Than They Say  

On Friday’s episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter takes apart the latest employment numbers and warns that financial markets are already discounting an ideal outcome few can reasonably expect. He walks listeners through why headline job gains are misleading, why stock valuations rest on optimistic assumptions about war and AI, and why the nation’s […]

Headline Report and Household Survey Show an Employment Gap of 341k Jobs in April

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth is Trending Above 5%

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Schiff w/ Lutz: Washington Can’t Bail Itself Out This Time  

In his latest interview on Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network, Peter lays out out a sober warning about the macroeconomy and the world’s preferred reserve currency. He frames our economic situation as the inevitable result of decades of fiscal and monetary mismanagement, and he urges listeners to think about capital preservation now rather than waiting […]