Peter's Blog

GDP Turns Negative as Inflation Smolders

In a new report released today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shaved another three-tenths off first-quarter growth estimates, revealing that real U.S. GDP actually slipped 0.5 percent at an annual rate instead of inching ahead. The contraction follows a 2.4 percent gain in 2024’s closing quarter, marking the economy’s sharpest quarterly swing since the […]

How We Protect the Fed From Its Own Consequences

While the Fed prints money endlessly, there is always the irresistible feeling that the effects of that printing are not felt in full. The money supply greatly increases and brings inflation in tow, yet life never gets as bad as we would expect it to. The fundamental shifting of money’s value should have an even […]

New Policy Report: Fed has Bad News for Congress

In a report released on Friday, the Fed provided a monetary policy update to congress, highlighting its perspective on keeping rates constant and its outlook on the future of the economy. The report comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target locked at 4¼ %–4½ % for a sixth straight meeting […]

BoE Freezes Rates at 4.25% While CPI Re-Accelerates

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept its main Bank Rate steady at 4.25 percent yesterday, resisting a growing chorus for relief even as inflation flared again and growth sputtered. Minutes published Thursday reveal a 6–3 split—the most dissent since 2020—with Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and newcomer Alan Taylor pushing for a 25-basis-point […]

The WWIII Trade

As war rages on in Iran and Israel, equities are down overall while defense stocks are surging, and both gold and silver have bounced, followed by volatile corrections. You could take a lot of guesses about how to trade the war and chaos—but the surest chaos bet will always be precious metals, especially in the […]

New York Manufacturing Slumps Again

New York’s manufacturing sector faced another difficult month, marking a consistent four-month decline according to the recent Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index fell sharply to -16.0 in June, emphasizing the continued contraction in regional economic activity. Despite the deteriorating conditions, there is […]

The Silver Bull is Finally Here

With silver classically lagging behind gold during the yellow metal’s stunning recent rise, the long-anticipated bull market for silver is finally here in earnest. And in a bull market, silver tends to outperform gold—once it finally catches up.

ECB Cuts Interest Rates Amid Persistent Economic Risks

On June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announced another round of interest rate reductions, lowering key rates by 25 basis points. Starting June 11th, the deposit facility rate will fall to 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.40%. This move underscores the ECB’s […]

Trump Needs the Money Printer

Trump has a long history of begging the Fed to print money, and in his second term, that hasn’t changed a bit. In fact, he needs the free money spigots to turn on to delay a collapse that, otherwise, he’d be blamed for.

Inflation Remains Stubbornly High in Mexico, Food Prices Surge

Mexico’s latest inflation numbers released by INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) on June 9th reveal continued fragility in the economy despite official reassurances. For the month of May, inflation rose 0.28% month-over-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 4.42%. While the central bank and policymakers emphasize easing inflationary pressures, persistently high prices for […]