Peter's Blog

Don’t Rely on GDP

An important error in statistical analysis is that mathematical economists have lost sight of what their beloved statistics represent —none more so than with GDP. In this analysis, I explain why GDP is simply the total of accumulating currency and credit which is wrongly taken to reflect economic progress — there being no such thing […]

Unwinding the Financial System

This article looks at the collateral side of financial transactions and some significant problems that are already emerging. At a time when there is a veritable tsunami of dollar credit in foreign hands overhanging markets, it is obvious that continually falling bond prices will ensure bear markets in all financial asset values leading to dollar […]

Could They Have Been More Wrong About Inflation in 2020?

I recently ran across a video produced by CNBC back in July 2020. It is titled “Why Printing Trillions of Dollars May Not Cause Inflation.” That aged poorly, didn’t it? And people wonder why I keep saying you should be skeptical of mainstream narratives.

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Revised Higher

Price inflation has been even worse than advertised. Of course, you know that because you’ve lived it. But it is nice when the data crunchers swerve a little closer to reality. The Bureau of Economic Analysis did just that, revising its Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data higher for the entirety of this inflation cycle.

Bond Crisis

As the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note soared, gold and silver came under selling pressure this week. But ahead of the weekend, bear closing in precious metals is evident. In European trade this morning, silver rallied to $23.00, down a net 55 cents from last Friday’s close. And gold traded at $1871, down […]

The End of the Road for the Dollar

With the Asian hegemons undoubtedly able to introduce gold standards, where does that leave the dollar? This article describes just how precarious the fiat dollar’s position has become.

Americans Aren’t Buying the “Great Economy” Narrative

The Fed people insist the economy is strong. They upped their GDP growth projections at their last meeting. Joe Biden thinks the economy is strong. He keeps bragging about the marvelous achievements of “Bidenomics.” Mainstream economists keep telling us the economy is strong. But the average American isn’t buying any of it. (Perhaps price inflation […]

There’s a Herd of Elephants in the Room

Among the many problems currencies the markets face, there is one that is undocumented: the eurodollar market. This is yet another very large elephant in the room. This article quantifies eurodollars and eurodollar bonds, which are additional to US money supply and credit.

Fed Talk and Dot Plots: There’s a Big Difference Between Saying and Doing

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, but the committee indicated that it plans to hold rates higher for longer than originally projected. As you digest the Fed meeting, it’s important to remember that there is a big difference between “saying” and “doing.”

Currency Wars Versus Gold Standards

Russia and the Saudis are driving up oil and diesel prices. But these moves are likely to undermine the rouble more than they undermine the dollar, euro, and other major currencies. Therefore, higher energy prices will rebound on the Russians this winter: if they shiver in Germany, they will freeze in Russia. If the dollar […]