Peter's Blog

January CPI Throws Cold Water on “Disinflation” Narrative

After the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the mainstream was giddy. “Inflation is over!” they proclaimed. “The Fed is winning the inflation fight!” they cried. “We are entering a period of disinflation!” they insisted. Well, the January CPI report threw cold water on that disinflation narrative.

“Supercore” Inflation: The Latest Buzzword to Remind You Everything Is Fine

There is apparently a new economic buzzword out there – supercore inflation. CNN says this is a buzzword we all need to pay attention to. Why?

Why You Should Take the Latest Jobs Report With a Grain of Salt

If you have any skepticism of government narratives at all, you have to question last week’s non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the number of layoffs and the general slowing of the economy, the notion that 517,000 jobs were created in January just doesn’t make sense. Turns out that your skepticism […]

Is the Fed Easing Up on the Inflation Fight?

Is the Federal Reserve easing off the accelerator on its inflation fight? The answer depends on whether you believe your eyes or your ears.

Fed Officials Claim They Can Shrink the Balance Sheet a Lot More; They Can’t

Federal Reserve officials insist they can still shrink the balance sheet significantly more than they already have. You can file this assertion under the same category as “inflation is transitory,” and “the problems in the subprime mortgage market are contained.” In other words, Fed officials have detached from reality — again.

The Trillion-Dollar Coin: A Dumb Idea That Won’t Go Away

Policy wonks and government people come up with some really dumb ideas. And a lot of those dumb ideas just won’t go away. Now that we’re in the early stages of the fake debt ceiling fight, a really dumb idea has been resurrected from the dead – the trillion-dollar coin.

Here We Go Again! It’s Time for Another Debt Ceiling Fight

Here we go again. The clock is ticking down to another US debt ceiling fight. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US government will officially bump up against the debt ceiling Thursday (Jan. 19).

Is “Cooling” CPI Setting the Stage for More Inflation?

Based on the headline numbers, price inflation cooled again in December, boosting market optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease off the pedal on its monetary tightening. But this could be setting the stage for more price inflation down the road. And a deeper look at the data reveals that a lot of […]

Have You Broken That New Year’s Resolution Yet?

We’re just a few days into the new year. How are resolutions going? Mine are going fantastic! I didn’t make any.

Slow Pace of Balance Sheet Reduction Calls Into Question Fed’s Commitment to Inflation Fight

Most people have focused on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as it battles price inflation. But there is another element in the inflation fight most people ignore – balance sheet reduction. It isn’t going well.