Peter's Blog

Fed Sends Mixed Messages After Hiking Rates

The Federal Reserve sent out mixed messages after its November FOMC meeting leaving markets wondering just how much more the central bank will tighten monetary policy. As expected, the Fed delivered another 75 basis point rate hike, pushing the Fed funds rate to between 3.75 and 4%. The last time interest rates were this high […]

Thanks to the Fed You’re Working Harder Just Trying to Keep Your Head Above Water

On the surface, the September job numbers looked pretty good. The economy continues to add jobs and the unemployment rate fell. But these headline numbers paper over underlying problems in the economy. While President Biden brags about job growth, the average American is working more just to maintain last year’s standard of living.

UN Agency Warns of Global Recession Due to Tightening Monetary Policy

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) got it half right. The UN agency warned that there is a high risk of a global recession due to central banks tightening monetary policy to fight inflation. But the solutions offered reveal that the UNCTAD has no idea what causes inflation.

Hurricane Cleanup Will Stimulate the Economy? Not So Fast!

If the Keynesians are right, Hurricane Ian will create an economic boom here in Florida. After all, breaking windows creates demand and that stimulates the economy. And after this massive hurricane cut through Florida, there were a lot of broken windows — and much worse.

This Looks a Lot Like the Dot-Com Bust With One Big Difference — Inflation

This is starting to look a lot like the popping of the dot-com bubble with one big difference — inflation. Beginning in mid-June, we saw a significant bear market rally in stocks. But the recent declines have wiped out those gains and more. For instance, the Dow jumped 14% during the 2-month rally. By the […]

Gold Is One of the Best Performing Assets of 2022

Given historically high inflation, why haven’t we seen a big rally in gold and silver? There are a number of factors that have weighed on precious metals, but as the World Gold Council points out, it’s important to put gold and silver’s recent price movements in a broader perspective. In fact, gold has been one […]

Feelings Trump Economics: Price Gouging Edition

Hurricane Ian is taking aim at Florida. That means there is already talk of “price gouging.” People have a visceral emotional reaction to people raising prices during a disaster. But it is nothing but feelz. In fact, “price gouging” serves an important economic function. Not allowing prices to rise actually causes more harm.

Fed Policy in a Nutshell: Live in Hope; Die in Despair

During his post- FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Hope for the best; plan for the worst.” I think he meant, “Live in hope; die in despair.”

Retail Sales Headline Reveals Mainstream Cluelessness About Inflation

When it comes to the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, the mainstream just doesn’t get it. This headline from Fox Business reveals the level of confusion. “Retail sales unexpectedly edge higher in August despite soaring inflation” [Emphasis added]

A “Silver” Lining in the Metals Market: Silver Rally Could Bode Well for Both Gold and Silver

While gold dropped last week, silver rallied. Peter Schiff called it a “silver lining” that could indicate we’re near the bottom in the precious metals dip. Gold and silver have sold off with every inflation surprise to the upside. The markets think persistent inflation means the Fed will get even more aggressive with rate hikes. […]