Peter's Blog

Falling Trade Deficit Suggests a Weakening US Economy

The March Trade Deficit decreased for the first time in four months. The total deficit came in at -$64.2B, which is the second smallest deficit since January 2021. This might seem like good news but it’s yet another indication of a weakening economy.

CFTC CoTs Report: Traders Go Quiet Before Fed Meeting

The CoTs report is a breakdown of open interest in the major futures markets as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Please note: the CoTs report was published 04/28/2023 for the period ending 04/25/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Bank Term Funding Program Reaches New All-Time High

The Fed is still bailing out banks. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) reached a new all-time high in April, suggesting that the banking crisis has not yet passed. And while the aggregate balance sheet looks to be shrinking, the detailed data shows it is more complex than that.

Silver Sees Record Number of Contracts Close in Final Day

Silver has seen a relatively weak delivery to start the action in May. While this could be considered disappointing to some who were looking for fireworks, a look beneath the surface shows that all is not well.

13-Week Money Supply Reaches New All-Time Low

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in March fell $257B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 8th consecutive monthly drop. Going back to the 1970s, the drop in March was actually the biggest on record on an absolute and relative basis.

Comex Update: Silver Shorts Could Be in Trouble

Silver delivery from the COMEX was low in April, but there is more to the story. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement […]

The Technicals: Is $2,000 Gold Support or Resistance?

The technical analysis last month highlighted how the current price spike looked unsustainable and needed time to consolidate. It also mentioned that we may be at a turning point in precious metals, concluding:

COMEX Update: JP Morgan on the Ropes in Gold as Silver Coverage Reaches Record Low

On the surface, everything still looks fine at the COMEX, but the data reveals more going on. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the […]

TTM Net Interest Expense Exceeds Half a Trillion Dollars

The Federal Government ran a gargantuan deficit of -$378B in March. This is over $100B larger than the massive February deficit. In the last three years, only the deficit last September was larger because the government recognized the cost of Biden’s student loan forgiveness. September aside, this month was the largest deficit month since March 2021 […]

Getting CPI Back to 2% Is a Fantasy

The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.