Peter's Blog

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories Below 12-month Trend

The BLS reported that 236k jobs were added in March. Similar to December and January, the Household survey greatly exceeded the Headline Report with 577k jobs added. The Household Survey was surprisingly strong given the current economic environment.

Trade Deficit Increases Again in February to $70.5 Billion

The February Trade Deficit increased for the third month in a row, rising by $1.9 billion. Net Goods came in at -$92.9B with Net Services at $22.4B to reach a total of -$70.5B.

CFTC CoTs Report: Price Drivers Go Beyond the Futures Market

Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the latest price action is potentially even more bullish than normal. The latest price moves have been supported by Managed Money but the data clearly shows there is more driving the upward movement. Please note: the CoTs report was published 03/31/2023 for the period ending 03/28/2023. […]

Comex Reins in Platinum but Sees Gold Deliveries Rise

Gold has been seeing a large number of contracts roll in the final day of the contract. That did not happen this month. This has resulted in a large delivery volume.

The Fed Prints $324B in March As QE Restarts

By now it should be common knowledge that the Fed has blown up its balance sheet rather quickly to combat the current banking crisis. As the chart below illustrates, the Fed added a gargantuan sum to its balance sheet in March, netting an increase of $324B.

Money Supply Is Flashing Red

The seasonally adjusted Money Supply in February fell $121B and the Money Supply in January was revised from positive $31B to -$142B. This is a major revision and now means the Money Supply has fallen for seven straight months.

Comex Update: Delivery Volume Slows Even as Prices Rise

Gold is wrapping up March, which is a minor delivery month. While it was a decent delivery month, it was the smallest minor month since November 2021.

The Technicals: This Week Could Be the Most Important Week for Gold in Years

Gold had a big rally last week. But is it sustainable? What are the technicals saying? The data over the last several months continues to give insight into the market. November showed the market was in neutral, but then the December analysis correctly identified an impending move upwards, the January review called for a correction and then February concluded:

The Comex Is in Far Worse Shape Than SVB if the Run on Physical Accelerates

Given the potential impacts of the ongoing banking crisis, I will start this article with the conclusion. The current banking crisis could not have come at a worse time for the Comex system. Inventories have seen massive depletion over the last 2+ years as investors have slowly been pulling physical out of the vaults. I […]

Falling Energy Prices Disguise a Relatively Hot CPI

The CPI came in at 0.37% for the month of February. While this was in line with expectations, it is still a 4.5% annualized increase in prices. And falling energy prices made the CPI look cooler than it actually was.