Peter's Blog

2022 Trade Deficit Signals Inflation Closer to 15%

The December Trade Deficit increased after a major drop in November. The total came in at $67B which was 10% greater than November’s $61B, but still well below the 6-month high from October of $77B. It is also below the $79B Trade Deficit from December 2021.

Is It Time to Drop the “L” in the BLS?

By all measures, the latest job report absolutely blasted past expectations with one of the biggest upside surprises in recent memory. The current month came in at 517,000 jobs created. But even that massive figure was beaten by the latest Household Survey which showed 894k jobs created in January.

Comex Results: Gold Sees Massive One-Day Roll While Silver Adjustments Break Records

Strange activity continues at the Comex! Delivery volume for February was a little less than half the contracts open at first notice. 6,005 contracts were delivered with 7,370 remaining in open interest. This was a much larger relative delivery than December which saw less than a third of contracts delivered on the first day. Things seemed suspicious […]

QT Falls Short Again and the Fed Lost Almost $100B in January

The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. The Fed has failed to meet its target in 7 of the last 8 months with only an $81B reduction in January. The Fed fell woefully short of meeting their $35B MBS target, seeing only $16.7B (less than 50% of the target). The Treasury […]

Gold and Silver May Need a Breather Before Moving Higher

The price analysis last month titled Gold and Silver are Setting up for a Strong Advance in 2023 highlighted that both metals had shaken off the weakness and looked to be headed higher. It concluded by saying…

Money Supply Shrinks in 2022 for the First Time on Record

For the first time ever, the money supply contracted on an annual basis in 2022. The seasonally adjusted Money Supply in December was negative for a fifth consecutive month, coming in at -$147B. This was the largest monthly contraction in M2 going back to 1959. This type of contraction typically does not happen!

Comex Update: Gold Deliveries Pick Up Late in the Contract

Gold deliveries in January have reached 6,327 contracts with only 178 remaining in open interest. While this fell shy of the last five minor months, there are a few signs that are noteworthy. First, the delivery volume was greater than last January. This is important because January is typically a slow month after the major […]

Comex Inventory Withdrawals Have Slowed but Not Stopped

The flow of gold and silver out of Comex vaults has slowed in recent weeks, but there is no question that metal continues to move out. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical […]

Budget Deficit Exceeds $1.4T in 2022

The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$85B in December. While this was much smaller than the deficit posted in November, it marks one of the largest December deficits ever.  That pushed then 2022 calendar year deficit to over $1.4 trillion.

CPI: Saved by Falling Energy Prices

The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. As shown below, the fall in Energy has been a big reason for the recent drop in inflation. Commodities have also been a driver down as Used Cars and Trucks fell -2.5% MoM and -8.8% YoY. That said, stickier items like […]