Peter's Blog

US Debt Hits the Ceiling – Interest Payments Keep Growing

The US government has once again run up against the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, interest payments on the debt keep growing. The Treasury only added $6B of debt in December, allowing short-term debt to mature and replacing it with longer-term debt. This makes sense as long-term rates are below short-term rates with the inverted yield curve.

The Real Jobs Report Way Worse Than Headlines Suggests

The headlines keep telling us the US has a robust job market, but a deeper dive into the data tells a much different story.

Trade Deficit Falls Due to Weak Consumer

The November Trade Deficit saw the first contraction in four months and actually fell to the lowest level since October 2020. This was primarily driven by a collapse in Imported Goods as shown below.

A Bet on Bitcoin is Gambling on the Whales

Key Takeaways The price of Bitcoin has been suspiciously stable following the epic collapse of FTX less than 2 months ago The whales are defending the Bitcoin price at $16,000 waiting for interest to flood back into Bitcoin It’s hard to imagine a bigger hype train than 2021 which means Bitcoin may not make a […]

Managed Money Ends 2022 on Bullish Note

Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/30/2022 for the period ending 12/27/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. Gold finished the year on a strong note, with Managed Money reaching a net-long position of 50k. This is the largest net long position for Managed Money going back to June 2022.

The Fed has Missed the Balance Sheet Mortgage Back Security Reduction Target Reduction Every Single Month

The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. After reaching and exceeding this target last month, the Fed is back to undershooting. This should not come as a surprise given the turmoil in the bond market this year and the lack of liquidity.

Did Platinum Just Break the Comex?

This analysis typically starts with gold, but the activity in platinum is a major event that should not be overlooked. See the article What is the Comex? for a bit of backstory.

Money Supply Growth Continues Massive Divergence from History

The 13-week annualized non-seasonally adjusted money supply growth rate is crashing at a time when it typically moves up. The market is becoming increasingly more vulnerable to a major event in the weeks or months ahead. Let’s take a look at the data…

Gold and Silver are Setting up for a Strong Advance in 2023

While the price analysis last month was very neutral, the data this month points to a bit more positive momentum in the gold and silver markets. Last month I highlighted that gold was trapped between long-term support and resistance.

Comex Update: Platinum Shorts on Edge While Silver Longs Still Wait?

December gold is having the weakest major delivery month since February. This is surprising given the recent strength in gold and considering that last December saw quite a large number of contracts deliver (36k). I commented on this a few weeks ago, suggesting that the lower volume was a result of thinner supplies. I think the […]