Peter's Blog

Comex Results: This Game Has Changed

“How did you go bankrupt?” “Very slowly at first, and then very quickly?” The data shows that the Comex is in the middle of experiencing a run on its vaults that is really taking its toll and continuing to accelerate. If you read no further in this analysis, first just take a look at Figure […]

The Fed is Still Coming up Short on QT

The Fed is supposed to be reducing the balance sheet by $95B a month. This is up from $47.5B before September. As the chart below shows, the Fed has only succeeded in meeting or exceeding its goal a single time (August) in 6 months. In the latest month, the Fed came up 25% short with a […]

Money Supply Growth Rate Still Negative

Money Supply shrunk last month by $129B, the largest monthly fall ever going back to 1959. April and June also set records at the time from a gross change perspective. From a percentage amount, Feb. 1970 had been the largest contraction ever (-6.5% annualized), but the current month beat that number at -6.9% annualized.

Student Loan Forgiveness Creates Largest September Deficit Ever

The Federal Government ran a $430 billion deficit in September. It was the largest monthly deficit since March 2021 when the last Covid stimulus bill was passed. The massive surge this month was due to another Biden giveaway in the form of $437 billion in student loan forgiveness.

The Technical Picture: More Time is Needed Before a Sustainable Rally Begins

The price analysis of gold and silver last month discussed the technical damage done and highlighted how support had become resistance. It concluded, “When everything is so lopsidedly bearish, it can signify capitulation. That said, beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Because of the technical drivers in gold and silver, moves tend to […]

Comex Update: At This Rate the Silver Metal Will be Gone in Months

Let’s say you were a country or a group of very wealthy individuals and Covid hits. You see governments around the world print money like crazy. It makes you think there might be some inflation to deal with and you want to protect yourself. Gold and silver are the logical choices. So, if you decide […]

Comex Inventory: 17.4 Paper Ounces of Silver for Each Registered Ounce

Physical metal has continued to drain from COMEX vaults. This is particularly true for silver, which now has 17.4 paper ounces for every registered ounce. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory […]

CPI: This Game of Chicken is Almost Over

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for September came in at 0.38%, dropping to 8.25% YoY. Median expectations had been for 0.3% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the hot number hammered markets on the open, especially precious metals. The markets climbed their way back as of publishing, indicating the investors may be starting to understand the Fed’s […]

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories are Below Trend While Revisions are Negative Again

According to the BLS, the economy added 263,000 jobs in September, which was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000.  More significantly, the trends reveal a slowing labor market. Education and Health led the way with strong hiring along with Leisure and Hospitality.

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Over the last 18 months, the Treasury has aggressively converted short-term debt to longer-term debt. This can be seen in the chart below with the turquoise bars being negative.