Peter's Blog

Trade Deficit: Are Falling Imports Further Sign of Recession?

The August Trade Deficit fell for a fifth straight month to -$67.4B. The Deficit is now down an 37% from the high struck back in March. As shown by the chart below, this is mainly driven by a fall in Imports as Exports have stayed relatively flat.

CoTs Report: Managed Money Hammers Gold for 7th Straight Week

Managed Money continues to hammer the price of gold lower as the Net Short position increased to -43k contracts. Please note: the CoTs report was published on 9/30/2022 for the period ending 9/27/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Surprise! Another Month = Another Failed Attempt at QT

The Fed has found it easier to raise rates than shrink its balance sheet. September was supposed to be the month when the Fed got serious about shrinking the balance sheet. After a few months of warming up with $47.5B monthly reductions, the Fed was going to step up in September and shrink by $95B ($60B in […]

Comex: Platinum Shorts Live to See Another Day

I typically start this analysis with gold, but the action in the platinum market is impossible to ignore. The next four charts should tell you everything you need to know. First, similar to gold and silver, platinum has seen a much higher delivery volume since the pandemic struck in 2020.

Collapse in Money Supply Is Still a Major Risk for the Market

Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

Calling the Fed’s Bluff: They are Holding a Losing Hand

The Fed has talked a big game lately. Many people (including me) assumed the Fed would fold a long time ago. There is a very good reason — the Fed will crush the economy and the US Treasury with higher interest rates. In reality, the Fed is holding a losing hand and trying to bluff […]

Price Analysis: Support Becomes Resistance

The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson […]

Comex Update: September Gold Delivery Volume Blasts Higher

September gold has been a very strong delivery month with 8,573 contracts being delivered plus an additional 718 in open interest that will be delivered over the next week (9,219 total). It is currently still below the July month but could exceed the total by the time the month completes due to mid-month activity.

Comex Stock Report: The Vaults are Still Bleeding

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

Treasury Runs Largest August Deficit Ever as Interest Costs Soar

The federal government ran a $220 billion deficit in August. It was the largest monthly deficit since last July.