Peter's Blog

August CPI Shows Inflation Getting Stickier

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for August came in nearly flat again at 0.09% MoM, dropping to 8.3% YoY. Expectations had been for -0.1% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the market had a very negative reaction to the report.

US Debt: Annualized Interest Surges More Than $22B in a Single Month

The Treasury added $341B of debt in August. This was the largest increase in the debt since January and is more than 10 times larger than the increase in July. Another major occurrence was the increase in short-term debt. The Treasury increased Bills by $210B, the largest increase since June 2020. This is a move […]

Trade Deficit Still Historically High Despite Fall Since March

The trade deficit fell in July to -$70.7 billion. It was the fourth straight month of drops. While the deficit continues to fall from all-time highs, it is very large relative to deficits prior to 2022. Despite the large 33% fall from the -$107 billion in March, the current deficit would have been an all-time […]

CFTC Report: Silver Net Short Position Reaches New High for the Move

As highlighted last month, short positioning in gold was at the highest level since April 2019. This laid the seeds for a potential short squeeze. While a squeeze did unfold, it was brief. Sellers have regained control of the market and are driving the price back down. Please note: the COTs report was published 9/2/2022 for […]

Jobs Report: Multiple Full-Time Job Holders Reaches All-Time High

According to the BLS, the economy added 315k jobs in August, which was on par with analyst estimates. While the job numbers continue to appear strong, a deeper look into the data shows some trends that may indicate weakness.

Is the Fed Worried About the Mortgage Market?

Is the Federal Reserve worried about the tanking mortgage and housing market? If their holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are any indication, the answer is, yes. The Fed has finally started shrinking its overall balance sheet as promised, but they are not shedding MBS according to plan.

COMEX: Bank of America Backstops Strong Delivery Volume in Silver

As we round out August in the COMEX, gold delivery was strong and silver was dominated by the odd mechanizations of Bank of America.

Comex Update: House Accounts See Largest Net Delivery Volume on Record

Gold saw the largest delivery volume in 2022 with 33,593 contracts delivered so far and 244 remaining in open interest. Since 2020, only December and February last year recorded larger volumes.

13-Week Money Supply Growth Hits Multi-Decade Low

Money Supply growth was positive in July at $42B but sits well below the $161B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with 5 straight months above $200B whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

Gold and Silver Price Analysis: Caution Warranted in the Short-Term

The price analysis last month concluded that the market might have seen capitulation. It suggested the FOMC and GDP could spark a short squeeze based on the overly bearish COTs report. While gold rebounded strongly, it ran into stiff resistance and more hawkish talk by the Fed. With a large pullback from recent highs, is gold about to […]