Peter's Blog

Comex Results February Becomes the Month of Adjustments

There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

COTs Analysis: Will Hedge Funds Stick Around This Time?

The previous Commitment of Traders analysis showed how much influence Managed Money has over the short-term price movement of gold and silver. The table below summarizes this influence by comparing the Managed Money Net Positioning with “Other”, the next largest category. Swap is not considered because it typically sits opposite the other two.

Comex Countdown: 1 Day to Go – March Delivery Could Set Records

As mentioned yesterday, daily updates into the March close are warranted given the extreme situation in the market. Today is First Position, which means the data tonight will give the first indication of March deliveries. Let’s get into it…

The Fed Pulls Back on Treasuries but Dives in on Mortgage-Backed Securities

Even with the taper, the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet. And it’s not tapering the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) nearly as fast as advertised.

Comex Countdown: Two Days to Go as War Begins

Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days. It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure […]

Seasonal Adjustments – Did Money Supply Expand or Contract?

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $245 billion in January. However, when looking at the raw, non-seasonally adjusted M2 data, the money supply contracted by $214 billion. That would be the largest contraction since Jan 2013. How do we parse out this data?

The Technicals: Is the Gold and Silver Rally Sustainable?

Gold and silver have both rallied in recent weeks, with the price of gold pushing to $1,900 an ounce. But is this rally sustainable? Following is some technical analysis of both the gold and silver markets.

Comex Countdown: Feb, March, and April All Flashing Yellow

The last article highlighted the strange things going on in the gold market. Specifically: Cash settlement instead of delivery for February Increased open interest in March Slightly higher spread cost in April. Recent weeks have seen several flashing yellow signs in the gold market.

Comex Vaults See Inventory Fall 3% in the Last Month

Gold continues to flow out of COMEX vaults at a rapid pace. Inventory fell 3% in the last month alone. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail.

Treasury Realizes First Surplus in Nearly 2.5 Years

The US Treasury realized a monthly surplus of $118.7 billion in January. It was the first budget surplus since September 2019 and the largest since it realized a $160 billion surplus in April of 2019. The surplus was driven by high revenue from a continued surge in Individual Taxes. This was combined with shrinking expenditures […]