Peter's Blog

Unrounded MoM CPI Was 0.65%; Price Increases Are Widespread

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.65% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.48%. Both of these numbers came in above expectations. As hypothesized last month, it was very possible that Omicron temporarily restrained inflation in December and a rebound should be expected. It did not take long for […]

2021 Trade Deficit Shatters Historical Record Set Back in 2006

In December 2021, the US ran up a total trade deficit of -$80.7 billion, just a tick shy of the record -$80.8 billion set in September. The Goods Deficit increased by 3.2% to come in at -$101.4B, eclipsing the -$100B mark for the first time ever. This capped off a year in which the trade […]

Are There Tremors in the Gold Market?

As reported last week, multiple data points in the COMEX are starting to flash yellow in the gold market. Cash settlements are at a recent high, open interest has spiked in March to way above normal, and roll costs are creeping up. Are these tremors in the gold market?

Treasury Increases Short-Term Debt by $200B as Total Debt Crosses $30T

The Treasury added almost $400 billion of debt in January, the third most since July 2020. As the month closed out, the national debt eclipsed $30 trillion. The other two larger debt increases both came right after the debt ceiling was raised. Perhaps most important is the fact that almost $200B of the newly added […]

Don’t Get Too Excited; Most of These Revised Job Gains Were Already Counted

January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday. However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is […]

What is the Comex Gold Market Signaling?

As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery […]

Fed’s Taper Struggle: Central Bank Adds Another $100 Billion to Balance Sheet

The Fed is talking taper. But it seems to be having a hard time actually tapering. The central bank added another $100 billion to its balance sheet in January.

Money Supply Grew 13.1% in 2021 – Is It Enough to Keep the Bubble Going?

M2 increased by $201 billion in December. This represents a 0.94% MoM increase which annualizes to 11.9%. For the entire year of 2021, M2 grew by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 13.1%! This is extremely rapid money supply growth! The Fed can taper their asset purchases, but shrinking the Money Supply is the only way […]

The Technicals: Will $1800 Gold Hold?

For the past year, gold has been battling around the $1,800 an ounce psychological mark. Silver has faced a similar up and down battle near $25, albeit with more volatility. Gold finished 2021 strong at $1830 but then a pullback happened followed by a quick rebound back above $1800 and now $1830. Will $1800 hold […]

Comex Countdown: BofA House Strikes Back

An article earlier this month reviewed the massive volume of physical metal leaving the bank House accounts over the last two years. December 2021 finished the year off with a massive drawdown in House account inventories. While the drawdown continues across most accounts, Bank of America has tried to recoup some of the physical metal that […]