Peter's Blog

We May Not Have Hit Peak Inflation Yet…

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for April came in higher than expectations at 0.34% MoM and 8.28% YoY. The main driver for the MoM slowdown was a fall in Energy prices.

A Very Average Jobs Report

According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped from 62.4% to 62.2%. YoY, this April is up 165k jobs compared to last April.

A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks

The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was […]

Trade Deficit Explodes 22.3% MoM and 53.8% YoY

The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before exploding in the latest month.

Comex Results: May is Quiet, but June Looks Strong in Both Metals

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. As reported last week, Comex May’s open interest activity was looking weak in silver while gold showed a mixed picture. May has been weak so far, but June continues to look strong.

CFTC: Swaps Have Increased Gold Short Position by More than 1,300% since Nov 2015

Since the peak on March 8, Managed Money has reduced its Net Long positions by 60k contracts or 43%. Despite massive selling, the gold price has actually held up fairly well. The last time Managed Money net longs dropped this low in February, gold was struggling at the $1800 level, versus the struggle at $1900 […]

Can the Fed Pull Off a Magic Trick?

For the second month in a row, the Fed held true to its word and kept the balance sheet relatively flat. In aggregate, the balance sheet expanded by only $2B, though it did reach an all-time high mid-month. The drop to close out the month came as a result of $15B in mortgage-backed securities rolling […]

Money Supply Growth Rate Continues to Decelerate

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $59B in March. While the money supply is expanding, this is the slowest increase since June of 2021. It’s also almost $200B less than the $238B expansion last March.

Price Analysis: Will $1900 Hold?

The price analysis last month highlighted how gold was trying to carve out fragile support around $1900 and breakthrough resistance at $1950. Gold found a spark and broke through $1950, but has been unable to hold above it in the wake of “hawkish” Fed comments. Now, $1900 is being tested and should give clues to the next […]

COMEX Countdown: Are Banks Forgetting Silver to Focus on Gold?

Delivery volume for silver on the COMEX has dropped to the lowest level in months. Are banks ignoring silver to focus on gold? This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.