Peter's Blog

Drop in Energy Disguises a Bad Inflation print

This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.

Jobs: Downward Revisions and Weak Numbers Everywhere

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Fed Dramatically Slows the Pace of QT

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

13 Week Money Supply Starts Rising

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Comex Physical Gold: Demand Increases While Supply Falls

The Comex report for last month correctly identified a potential big move in silver while the same report two months ago preceded a massive up move for the price of gold. The data this month is not as obvious or compelling, but it is clear the stress on the Comex continues to build.

Federal Budget: Government Adds $662B of Debt in Three Months

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.

Jobs: A Weak Report is Even Weaker in the Details

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Technicals: Gold Consolidation is Nearing its End

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).

CME Gold and Silver Delivery Update July 2024

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

13-Week Money Supply Suggests a Flat Stock Market for Now

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.