Peter's Blog

CFTC CoTs Report: Froth Leaves the Markets in a Healthy Consolidation

Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/30/2024 for the period ending 12/24/2024. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Huge December Delivery Requires Comex to Restock Inventories

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

CPI: Shelter Prices are Rising 4.7% YoY

This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.

Jobs: Household Survey Shows Negative Job Gains YTD

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Fed Dramatically Slows the Pace of QT

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Money Supply Growth Continues to Accelerate

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Will December Comex Delivery Confirm Election Sell-Off is Over?

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Treasury Adds $1.1T of debt in last 4 months and $2T YTD

Current Trends The Treasury has still been issuing tons of short-term debt to finance exploding deficits. In the last 4 months, $1.1T in new debt has been added, with the vast majority being financed by debt maturing in less than 10 years. Over $400B has been debt maturing in less than 1 year. This will […]

Jobs: Headline Report is a Disaster, Household Survey is a Train Wreck

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.