Peter's Blog

Fed Ends QT with a Balance Sheet 75% Higher than Pre-Covid

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has decided to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st. In late 2019, the Fed balance […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth Stabilizes at 5%

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Comex Deliveries: November Shatters Records, December Looks Strong

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Jobs: Every Month in 2025 has Been Revised Down with Two Turning Negative

Note: This is the Jobs report for September that was released late on November 20th. There will be no October jobs report The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the […]

US Government Borrows $1.8T in Four Months

Current Trends The government hit the debt ceiling back in January which blocked any net new debt from being created from January to June. Once the debt ceiling was lifted, the government wasted no time in catching up for all the months where borrowing was frozen. From July through October, the government borrowed an eye […]

What Debt? Just inflate! 13 Week Money Supply Continues Accelerating

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Comex Update: Physical Markets Remain Under Pressure 

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

The Technicals: Recovering from 2011 PTSD

Editors Note I typically write the Technical Analysis quarterly. I most recently analyzed the data last month; however, the gold and silver market has seen a year’s worth of activity in the last month. Thus, I thought it would be good to review again this month. Furthermore, as someone who lived through the last blow […]

CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money is Not Driving this Bus 

Please note: the CoTs report was published 9/26/2025 for the period ending 9/23/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.  The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Comex Silver Delivery Volume Stays Strong as it Approaches a New All Time High 

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).  The data below looks at […]