Peter's Blog

13 Week Money Supply Growth Reaches 6.5%

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Elevated Silver Delivery Volume Has Metal Leaving Comex Vaults

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Federal Budget: Government Deficit Exceeds $1.6T in 2025

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of September, […]

October Trade Deficit Drops to Lowest Level since Great Financial Crisis

The Trade Deficit is one of the two components of the ‘twin deficits’; the other being the federal budget deficit. The trade deficit used to be a number that received a ton of attention in the 1980s and 1990s because it was determined to be a strong gauge of the strength and weakness in the […]

Jobs: Every Jobs Report in 2025 has Been Revised Lower

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

CFTC CoTs: Managed Money has Lost Control of the Price

Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/23/2025 for the period ending 12/16/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Money Supply Grows for a 25th Consecutive Month

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Comex: Physical Silver Demand Keeps the Market in Backwardation

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Jobs: The Economy Only Added 28k jobs from Jan-Jun

Note: This includes the Jobs report for November that was released on December 16th and the QCEW Report released on Dec 19th The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the […]

Gold and Silver: Fundamentally Strong but Technically Stretched

Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months). The last two technical analysis pieces have been spot on. […]