Peter's Blog

CFTC CoTs Report Confirms there is Little Froth in the Gold Market

Please note: the CoTs report was published 6/27/2025 for the period ending 6/24/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

13-Week Money Supply Growth Accelerates, Bucking Seasonal Trends

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

It’s Silver’s Turn: Delivery Demand on the Comex Continues Higher

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The Technicals: Gold Bull Market Still Looks Very Strong

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).

Jobs: Household Survey and Downward Revisions Paint a Much Bleaker Employment Picture

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Fed Drops QT to $5B a Month – Ensuring the Balance Sheet Will Stay Bloated

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

M2 Money Supply Grows by Most in 2 Years

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Delivery Demand on the Comex Remains at Record Levels for Gold and Silver

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Treasury Has Paid Out $941B in Interest Over the Last 12 Months

The government hit the debt ceiling back in January and has been pursuing extraordinary measures since. This usually means dipping into things like Civil Service Retirement funds to free up cash and avoid borrowing any more money.

Jobs: Last Three Months Saw Downward Revisions of 57k on Average

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.