Peter's Blog

The Technicals: Getting Closer to a Bottom, but Not There Yet

Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months). In Q4, the technical analysis was strongly calling for a […]

International Countries have only bought 10% of total new debt over 18 months

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet As soon as the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening they launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. As shown […]

Gold Continues to See Consistent Exit of Metal from Comex Vaults

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth Hits Highest Level Since 2022

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

US Government Approaches $40T in Total Debt Outstanding

Current Trends The US government has borrowed nearly $450B in the last three months. While this is a gargantuan sum of money, it annualizes to ~$1.9T which would be the smallest year of borrowing since 2022. Unfortunately, the trend more likely to hold is the borrowing seen in Feb and March which clocked in at […]

Headline Report and Household Survey Show an Employment Gap of 341k Jobs in April

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth is Trending Above 5%

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Comex Report: Deliveries Slow but Metal Keeps Leaving the Vault

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Federal Deficit: TTM Interest Expense Exceeds $1T

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of September, […]

Household Survey Shows a YTD Loss of 1.4M Jobs

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]