Household Survey Shows a YTD Loss of 1.4M Jobs

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Current Trends

The jobs report showed a gain of 178k jobs for the month of March. While that beat expectations, it will most likely be revised down in future months. Furthermore, the Household Survey showed a loss of 64k jobs. This is another consistent trend: the Household Survey continuously underperforming the Headline Report.

Figure: 1 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Monthly

To show the magnitude of this underperformance, consider the chart below. YTD, the Headline Report shows a gain of 205k jobs where the Household Survey shows a loss of 1.4M jobs.

Figure: 2 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Annual

The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). The data showed that the BLS assumed a job loss of 47k jobs in March.

Figure: 3 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly

For the year, the birth death assumption is -18k jobs.

Figure: 4 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly

The big report released earlier this month is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). According to the BLS, this is a far more accurate and rigorous report covering 95% of jobs available at a highly detailed level. Due to the rigor, the report is released quarterly on a several month lag.

The latest report is for Q3 2025. As shown, July and September were both below the Headline Report.

Figure: 5 Primary Report vs QCEW – Yearly

This QCEW data reveals that the economy lost jobs through 3 quarters in 2025. The revised Headline Report also shows this job loss, but the QCEW shows an even more negative picture of -633k (vs -560k for the Headline Report). This just pours salt in the wound of an already terrible story.

Figure: 6 Primary Report vs QCEW – Yearly

Digging Into the Headline Report

Unfortunately, despite being highly unreliable, the Headline report is the best data we have for the more recent periods. Furthermore, this is the data the Fed uses to shape its policy. The 178k jobs gained is the third best month since September 2024.

Figure: 7 Change by sector

Jobs by Category

When looking at the last 12-month trend, you can see that every job category was above trend except for Other. As for the trend, 5 of 8 categories are actually negative over the last year.

Figure: 8 Current vs TTM

The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers.

Figure: 9 Labor Market Detail

Revisions

This is the biggest story of the jobs report. After all the revisions, the job picture is significantly bleaker than the data originally showed. Every month shown below saw a negative revision except for January of this year. For February, the original 92k jobs lost has been revised to a loss of 133k.

Figure: 10 Revisions

Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 90k per month!

Figure: 11 Revisions

More Detail in the Household Survey

Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. The data shows full time jobs being added in March.

Figure: 13 Full Time vs Part Time

Historical Perspective

The chart below shows data going back to 1955.

Figure: 14 Historical Labor Market

The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month showed it falling to 61.9%, the lowest level since 2021.

Figure: 15 Labor Market Distribution

Conclusion

Ignore the unexpected positive job growth this month. The full data shows a very negative picture.

• Household Survey: recession level ugly
• QCEW Shows 633k jobs lost in first 3 quarters of 2025
• Revisions: constantly moving downward
• Labor force participation falls to a multi-year low

This is the sign of an economy hanging by a thread.