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Posts Tagged: “unemployment“

August 6, 2025 Original Analysis

Jobs Stall: July Payroll Gain Just 73K

The summer labor market is losing momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, barely budging overall employment since April and capping two straight months of sharp downward revisions. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent—on paper a healthy figure—yet a closer look shows […]

August 6, 2025 Exploring Finance

Jobs: Seven Straight Months of Downward Revisions

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

June 10, 2025 Original Analysis

ECB Cuts Interest Rates Amid Persistent Economic Risks

On June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announced another round of interest rate reductions, lowering key rates by 25 basis points. Starting June 11th, the deposit facility rate will fall to 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.40%. This move underscores the ECB’s […]

December 18, 2024 Guest Commentaries

Unveiling the Illusion of Knowledge

The Austrian School of Economics is responsible for developing and popularizing the keystone theories of the business cycle and of the origin of money. 50 years have elapsed since the Austrian F.A. Hayek won the Nobel Prize in economics, and it’s worthwhile to revisit his words on the occasion. The following article was originally published […]

November 1, 2024 Exploring Finance

Jobs: Headline Report is a Disaster, Household Survey is a Train Wreck

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

September 20, 2024 Guest Commentaries

Powell’s Cut Signals Recession Is Coming

Fed chair Powell slammed the “panic button” this week. On Wednesday the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in an environment of rising unemployment. This situation is historically associated with recession, but Powell is desperate for you to think that “this time is different.”

August 5, 2024 Original Analysis

Flattening Yield Curve is the Calm Before the Storm

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

August 5, 2024 Exploring Finance

Jobs: A Weak Report is Even Weaker in the Details

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

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July 1, 2024 Guest Commentaries

The Modern Myth of “Wage Slavery”

The idea of ‘wage slavery’ unfairly compares today’s suffering job market to historical chattel slavery, using outdated 19th-century arguments to criticize modern work. This oversimplification overlooks the significant improvements in workers’ freedom and their right to work.  Some will choose to work at a lower wage than accept a worse alternative.

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May 4, 2024 Guest Commentaries

Falling Full-Time Jobs Points Toward Recession

In April, the U.S. economy added a disappointing 175,000 jobs, falling short of expectations and nudging unemployment up to 3.9% (see current trends here). This signals a slowing economy that might force the Federal Reserve to put the guard rails back on. Our guest commentator gives a deeper look at a worrisome trajectory: while part-time […]

April 25, 2024 Original Analysis

California’s New Minimum Wage: A Cure that Exacerbates the Sickness

The solution to a problem shouldn’t make the problem worse. But apparently, California’s policy makers missed that memo. On April 1st, the state instituted a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers, the highest in the US. With California’s absurdly high cost of living, the policy appeared to make life more manageable for low-income residents. Unfortunately, as the adage goes, “If it sounds too […]