Peter's Blog

The Real Jobs Report Way Worse Than Headlines Suggests

The headlines keep telling us the US has a robust job market, but a deeper dive into the data tells a much different story.

Government Jobs Numbers Don’t Add Up

Have you ever had a gut feeling that the labor reports put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are hinky? If so, trust your gut.

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories are Below Trend While Revisions are Negative Again

According to the BLS, the economy added 263,000 jobs in September, which was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000.  More significantly, the trends reveal a slowing labor market. Education and Health led the way with strong hiring along with Leisure and Hospitality.

Ron Paul: The Fed Wants You Fired!

The Fed continues to talk tough about fighting inflation. During his Jackson Hole speech, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will “use our tools forcefully” to attack inflation. Powell even promised some pain. What exactly does Powell mean by “pain?” Ron Paul pointed out that Powell wants to “soften the labor market.” In other […]

Peter Schiff: This Labor Market Is Not “Strong”

The July non-farm payroll report came out much stronger than anticipated. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 528,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The narrative was that this blockbuster employment report proves that we’re not in a recession. In his podcast, Peter Schiff broke down the data […]

Labor Market Showing Cracks as Job Openings Decline More Than Expected

Despite back-to-back contractions in GDP, President Joe Biden, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and all of their supporters in the corporate media insist the US economy isn’t in a recession. But the only data they ever point to in order to back up their assertion is the “strong” labor market. The problem […]

This Jobs Report Revealed Strength in Inflation, Not the Labor Market

The January jobs report came in much stronger than expected. According to the labor department, the US economy added 467,000 jobs last month. This was significantly better than the 150,000 job projection. But there was some bad inflation news buried in the Labor Department data.

December Jobs: All but One Category are Way Behind 12-Month Trend

November had been the weakest jobs report of the year until a meager 199k were announced for December. As shown below, over the last 18 months, only December 2020 was weaker. This was right when the Covid second wave was wreaking havoc and before vaccines became available to the public.

Study: Enhanced Unemployment Benefits Enhanced Unemployment

Incentives matter. All of the political grandstanding, media spin and wishful thinking won’t change this basic economic principle. Both Janet Yellen and Joe Biden insisted “enhanced” unemployment benefits weren’t incentivizing people not to work. But as we recently reported, analysis of continuing unemployment claims after a number of red states cut enhanced benefits undermined this […]

Incentives Matter

Economics 101 – incentives matter. But politicians often seem to forget this. Or simply ignore it. “Generous” unemployment benefits provide the perfect example. With the US government handing out enhanced unemployment checks, we ended up in a bizarre situation with high unemployment even as job openings hit record levels.