Peter's Blog

Powell’s Cut Signals Recession Is Coming

Fed chair Powell slammed the “panic button” this week. On Wednesday the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in an environment of rising unemployment. This situation is historically associated with recession, but Powell is desperate for you to think that “this time is different.”

Flattening Yield Curve is the Calm Before the Storm

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

Jobs: A Weak Report is Even Weaker in the Details

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Modern Myth of “Wage Slavery”

The idea of ‘wage slavery’ unfairly compares today’s suffering job market to historical chattel slavery, using outdated 19th-century arguments to criticize modern work. This oversimplification overlooks the significant improvements in workers’ freedom and their right to work.  Some will choose to work at a lower wage than accept a worse alternative.

Falling Full-Time Jobs Points Toward Recession

In April, the U.S. economy added a disappointing 175,000 jobs, falling short of expectations and nudging unemployment up to 3.9% (see current trends here). This signals a slowing economy that might force the Federal Reserve to put the guard rails back on. Our guest commentator gives a deeper look at a worrisome trajectory: while part-time […]

California’s New Minimum Wage: A Cure that Exacerbates the Sickness

The solution to a problem shouldn’t make the problem worse. But apparently, California’s policy makers missed that memo. On April 1st, the state instituted a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers, the highest in the US. With California’s absurdly high cost of living, the policy appeared to make life more manageable for low-income residents. Unfortunately, as the adage goes, “If it sounds too […]

PIMCO: The Fed Needs More Unemployment

Analysts at PIMCO say that for the Fed to reach its goal of lowering inflation to 2%, we need fewer people to be employed. Reduced incentives to offer raises and bonuses and less spending from the “resilient” American consumer can help cool down inflationary pressure. But there’s an elephant in the room: Why do we let a […]

Peter Schiff: Another BS Jobs Report

The story of America’s job growth is more complex and nuanced than the government wants us to believe. In a world where job numbers wield significant influence over perceptions of economic health, it’s crucial to scrutinize the data—and the methods behind their presentation—closely. In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff delves into the murky waters of […]

Peter Schiff: The Hidden Ills in America’s Recent Job Creation

In his latest podcast episode, Peter uncovered the unsettling realities of recent job market trends, focusing primarily on the December jobs report. He casts a light on the sickly nature of recent job creation:

Peter Schiff: Job Numbers Not as Great as the Headlines Make Them Seem

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the non-farm payroll report for September on Friday. Once again, the headline numbers didn’t reflect reality. Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast. He said all of the people like President Biden probably shouldn’t be bragging about creating jobs people wish they didn’t have to have.