Peter's Blog

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Last week, Peter joined Mark on Resource Talks to walk through how higher energy prices, central-bank policy, and market psychology are shaping the next few years. He argues oil is likely to remain elevated even if a war ends, warns that inflation is driven by monetary responses rather than commodity shocks alone, and urges investors […]

Consumer sentiment has hit an all-time low in America as the promises of Trumpenomics like a flood of tariff wealth, slashed income taxes, and lower prices are washed away by the tides of war, low growth, bad math, and money printing. Politicians want to be good at math when it serves them, and terrible at […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Some commentators are of the view that one cannot trust the market economy, which is seen as inherently unstable. If left free, the market economy could lead to self-destruction. Hence, there is the need for the government and the central bank to manage the economy. It is held, in this framework, that successful management could be achieved […]

Last week, Peter joined Julia La Roche to discuss the Fed’s latest antics after Jerome Powell announced that rates will be held steady for at least another FOMC meeting cycle. Peter responds, warns that the consequences of the Fed’s inaction will be higher inflation, a weaker dollar, and a reassessment of what people consider real […]

On Wednesday Peter appeared on Fox business to dissect the latest PPI figures and the Fed’s newest decision to hold rates steady. Peter argues the Federal Reserve is out of touch, inflation is already running hot, and recent geopolitical shocks will only make a fragile U.S. balance sheet worse. To support his case, he walks […]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took the podium in Warwick, Rhode Island on September 23rd to explain why policymakers trimmed the federal funds target another 25 basis points last week. Speaking to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell said the new 4.00–4.25 percent range moves policy “toward a more neutral stance.” Yet in the […]

After once criticising former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s strategy of increasing the Treasury’s share of short-term debt issuance, Scott Bessent has decided to continue the same strategy. It’s part of the Trump administration’s bid to keep long-term interest rates down. But by using fiscal tools to provide low-cost liquidity to financial markets, it’s a bailout […]

According to a report from the World Gold Council, global investors poured another US$5.5 billion into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during August, extending a three-month buying streak and pushing total assets under management (AUM) to a record US$407 billion. Holdings climbed by 53 tonnes to 3,692 tonnes—the highest month-end tally since mid-2022—even as […]