Historic Red Retirement Rates

Before the upcoming midterm elections, a record number of incumbent House Republicans are set to retire. Historical data suggests that this is going to make it extremely difficult for Republicans to hold onto the House. When a large number of incumbents retire or do not seek office, it is very difficult to gain lost ground with new candidates. This creates a situation of crisis for the Republican party that is not being recognized. Trump has already tanked his popularity, and somehow believes that the midterms will present no problem. This should come as a timely reminder for him to tone back his tariff policy, rhetoric, and involvement foreign wars. If he does not greatly increase his approval rating between now and the midterm elections, keeping the house will be extremely improbable, given the Republican retirement rates.

For each senator that retires, there is a higher probability than otherwise of their seat being lost. Even though these districts have had their incumbent representatives for many years, the party with the retiring incumbent has a lower chance of winning in the next election. In some extremely one sided states, it presents almost no obstacle, but in swing states the effect is far greater. People want change and when they don’t have a reliable face to turn to, that instinct becomes even stronger. While specific representatives are able to earn trust over many years, the parties they represent are not necessarily given any edge in the upcoming elections. People often might retire when it seems like they’re unlikely to win again, which also could make this effect even stronger. This may actually have contributed to the high number of Republican retirements recently, as they most likely saw the writing on the wall that this midterm election cycle would be difficult for Republicans. While that effect is not necessarily going to happen, all signs are currently pointing towards some difficulty for Republicans, unless the administration dramatically changes its outcomes and approach.

Right now, two of the president’s most unpopular issues are the war in Iran and economic policy. War is unpopular for obvious reasons. Most people can clearly see that we are getting involved in something that has little to do with us, and following our allies into a war that benefits them. We spend an incredible amount on the war, and have been unable to come to any sort of convincing resolution. The American people are not even against wars, as long as they are effective, and this one is far from that. Either our military capacity is flagging, or we went into the war uncertain of the outcome we desired. Regardless, Trump tanked his approval ratings. Trump‘s economic policy has also been perceived as inefficient, as the term of a K shaped economy has recently been popularized. People see the stock market exploding as small businesses and regular people struggle. Those who already have assets are benefiting, and those who want them most are unable to benefit from them. While some of this is caused by regulatory capture and inopportune timing of the effects of deregulation, it still appears to be caused by Trump and thus causes him to have a lower approval rating than he would have otherwise.

Trump needs to change course on some things, and market some of his other decisions better. While stabilizing currency is often unpopular because it costs people other government benefits, it is often an underestimated tool to gain political leverage. Trump seems dedicated to using fiat currency manipulation for his own means and further destabilizing our wealth. However, if he stabilized the currency and continued deregulation with no further international blunders, he could regain the people’s trust in time for this upcoming midterm. While Trump has been able to avoid consequences for suboptimal economic policy, if he applied his rejection of the status quo to monetary policy, he could become a historically popular president by the end of his second term. A radical reformation of monetary policy seems extreme, but the historic retirement of Republicans signals that these are extreme times. Trump might tank his approval rating as the economy stabilizes, but the market’s resilience to the Iran war and tariffs suggest that Trump has the freedom to make big changes with relatively little damage. The market’s explosive growth might allow Trump to walk us back from the monetary cliff. Of course, this is unlikely to happen, but staying in power may require a radical restructuring of the financial system. Regardless of what happens in the next election, Trump has an opportunity to secure financial resilience for generations.