CFTC CoTs: Managed Money No Longer Driving Price Moves

Please note: the CoTs report was published 09/25/2026 for the period ending 09/22/2026. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.

Gold

Current Trends

Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. The very first thing to notice is the massive drop off in January before the sell-off. Positioning was extremely flat into early summer before starting to see increases in July just as the price was starting to rally again.

Figure: 1 Net Position by Holder

Managed Money started accumulating in May and was buying into the price weakness. After the recent peak in late August, Managed Money has been dropping their exposure again. This could be a big reason for the recent price weakness.

Figure: 2 Managed Money Net Position

Weekly Activity

The weekly activity below shows how Managed Money has now been liquidating for 4 straight weeks. This helps explain the recent price weakness. The speculators got spooked at Jackson Hole that the Fed was going to get tough on inflation and they have been liquidating each week since.

Figure: 3

The activity in the options market shows a slight uptick in recent weeks but it’s still well below where it had been throughout most of 2020-2025.

Figure: 4 Options Positions

Silver

Current Trends

While gold has seen increased activity with expanding open interest, silver is staying flat. The speculative money got chased out in the beginning of the year and has not returned.

Figure: 5 Net Position by Holder

Managed Money has been very quiet since March. While the price of silver continued to fall, Managed Money was barely moving or adding slightly. This is uncharacteristic of the futures market which is usually dominated by the action of Managed Money. Compare the big swings in Managed Money in 2023-2025. The price has become more volatile as Managed Money has pulled back from the market.

Figure: 6 Managed Money Net Position

Weekly Activity

You can see the actual weekly activity below. Again, the trend is just lower and lower activity across all market participants.

Figure: 7 Net Change in Positioning

The options market is actually a bit busier than what was seen in gold. The non-rep longs are down from where they were in January, but still hanging in above where it was prior to the recent run up.

Figure: 8 Options Positions

Conclusion

The price action in gold and silver used to be dominated by Managed Money. Prior to 2025 the correlation was extremely high. The price was set in the speculative paper market where Managed Money could jump in and out to drive the metals in the direction they wanted.

This has broken down in the last 2 years. Big price moves are not coming from Managed Money, but from other forces. In recent weeks, there has been a higher correlation which indicates that Managed Money is starting to become a price driver again, but it is a far cry from where things were a few years ago. Central Bank and Asian buying has certainly become a major driver which will likely continue to support prices.

Eventually this relationship will break down entirely when the demand for physical metal causes the paper Comex market to stop working entirely.

Figure: 9 Correlation Table