2025 ETF Inflows Are Recognition of the Golden Bull
Gold ETFs have been plagued by net outflows. The post-Covid panic sent inflows surging artificially high, and for years thereafter, investors parked less and less of their cash into gold funds. But now, following the price of physical bullion, investors have rushed in from the sidelines and sent ETF inflows roaring back.
ETF demand has more than doubled, first lagging behind bullion’s rise, but now reinforcing that gold bull market is far from over.
Last year, even as the price of gold had already began its stunning upward ascent in earnest, gold ETF outflows remained high as Wall Street failed to see the writing on the wall. But with inflows surging definitively in 2025, reaching levels not seen in years, it’s clear that institutional investors are recognizing the seismic shift in global monetary dynamics.
As Trump’s trade war continues, the American economy contracts, inflation remains hot, and markets await QE to trick the economy into looking and feeling good again, Q1 gold ETF inflows show that financial institutions are recognizing the golden bull.
ETF inflows have become another source of fuel for gold’s fire. Retail demand remains strong, and the short-term market reaction to Trump’s economic policies is becoming increasingly negative. Investors are rattled, and gold is the default lifeboat when uncertainty, volatility, and doubt are the emotions of the day.
Central bank gold buying was also feverish in 2024, and in 2025, the trend is continuing. Meanwhile, it’s extremely telling that countries like Germany are discussing gold repatriation efforts—it shows that other countries no longer trust the US to safely custody their bullion. Although Q1’s central bank gold buying was slower than the previous quarter, central bank gold buying continues as central banks hedge against the chaos of a rapidly-reshaping global economic system.
That’s specially true among BRICS countries and emerging markets, where governments are becoming wary of US chaos and are increasingly being incentivized to de-dollarize by stocking up on gold. With Trump threatening even more tariffs on countries that de-dollarize, those same governments are incentivized to hide those same gold purchases, making it hard to know exact numbers.
Poland and China are both major buyers, but official reporting varies widely from the demand estimates being published by organizations like the World Gold Council. Turkey and India are piling onto their gold reserves as well.
This isn’t speculative froth; it’s a deliberate pivot by sovereigns diversifying away from the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical tensions and fears of currency weaponization, QE, and doubts that the US can make good on its debts. The world is watching as the US quivers under the weight of soaring deficits and stubbornly high, wildly volatile Treasury yields. The US is facing record-high interest payments and trillions in debt that’s set to mature within the next year.
Central banks and retail buyers are less burdened by short-term performance metrics, understanding gold as a long-term bulwark against dollar hegemony and economic uncertainty. That’s why you often see a lag behind gold ETF inflows against gold buying by retail investors in and even central banks.
ETFs track the spot price of gold, but their flows reflect sentiment, not fundamentals. When Western investors dump ETFs, they depress the paper market, even as physical demand tightens supply. That’s why institutional investors are still under-allocated relative to the physical market’s strength—but with inflows back on the uptrend, gold has new institutional reinforcement for continuing gains.
Western financial institutions—pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers—operate in a world of quarterly performance reviews and benchmark-chasing. Gold, with its lack of yield and volatility tied to macro shocks, doesn’t fit neatly into their models. Most of Wall Street maintains a high time preference for big, fast gains whenever possible—not a multi-thousand year hedge against the slow erosion of fiat. Now Wall Street has jumped in, and when they embrace gold, it sends the message that they fear the party might be coming to an end.
We’ve been living beyond our means for far too long, with most Americans unaware that their standard of living is dependent on infinite debt and the ability to consume more than we produce, thanks to other countries. Trump’s tariffs aren’t making them pay their due; it’s causing them to reconsider providing America with the standard of living we’ve enjoyed for years.
“We get to live a standard of living that’s higher than we’re really entitled to based on our collective productivity. Now, it’s the rest of the world that makes that possible…According to Donald Trump, that’s the world screwing us over, ripping us off, and he wants that to stop. Well if that stops, well now, the ride on the global gravy train is over.”
When that gravy train stops, you’re not going to want to be a holder of US Treasurys. And while ETF inflows will push gold’s price higher, it will be physical bullion, not ETFs, that provide true protection from the upheaval of the new global economic paradigm.
