Peter's Blog

A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks

The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was […]

The Crossroads Is Looming! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap May 6, 2022

The Fed hiked rates 0.5% this week in an effort to stem the inflation tide. But the economy already looks shaky and the central bank has barely started this inflation fight. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey breaks down the messaging that came out of the Fed meeting and concludes the central bank is getting […]

Trade Deficit Explodes 22.3% MoM and 53.8% YoY

The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before exploding in the latest month.

Buckle Up for a Crashing Economy and More Inflation

Jerome Powell began hinting that inflation might be a problem last August. In November, Powell retired the word “transitory.” But here we are in May and the Federal Reserve still hasn’t done anything substantive to address the inflation problem. And now it may be too late. It’s probably time to buckle up for more inflation […]

The Fed Takes a Weak Swing at Inflation

The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. It was the biggest interest rate boost by the Fed since 2000. But given the extent of the inflation fight, this hardly seems like a bold, aggressive move. In fact, it was a […]

Student Loan Forgiveness: Who Pays?

Student loan forgiveness has been in the news lately. There are a number of different plans being floated, from blanket debt repudiation up to various amounts, to more limited income-based schemes. But nobody ever talks about a key question: who is going to pay for it? Well, you will.

Has the Fed Already Pricked the Housing Bubble?

The Federal Reserve has raised rates once – a mere 25 basis points (with another hike on the table today). So, it’s just getting started, but has it already popped the housing bubble? It sure looks that way. The question is how long will it take for the air to really start coming out. As […]

Comex Results: May is Quiet, but June Looks Strong in Both Metals

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. As reported last week, Comex May’s open interest activity was looking weak in silver while gold showed a mixed picture. May has been weak so far, but June continues to look strong.

Central Banks Added Nearly 84 Tons of Gold to Reserves in Q1

Despite a number of big sales, global central bank gold demand remained brisk as net holdings increased by 83.8 tons in the first quarter of 2022. That more than doubled the 41.2-ton expansion of central bank gold reserves in the last quarter of 2021 but was 29% lower than the first quarter of last year.

GDP Spin Is Orwellian Doublespeak

Despite all the talk about a “strong economy,” nobody was expecting a blistering hot GDP for the first quarter. The consensus was for around a 1% gain. As it turned out, it was even worse than expected. GDP shrank in Q1, contracting by 1.4%. Despite the awful number, the mainstream spun it as a positive. […]