Peter's Blog

Does the Big GDP Miss Signal Looming Stagflation?

GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation? While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly […]

CFTC COTS Analysis July 2021

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. As discussed in the gold/silver pricing analysis, Open Interest can be a major factor in the metal price. The CFTC breaks down open interest by:

Comex Delivery Results: August 2021 Contract

This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. The Comex (or CME Group) is a global derivatives market that allows for trading in futures contracts. They allow two parties (a long and a short) to speculate or hedge in specific commodity markets and guarantee the transaction in the process. The majority […]

Fun on Friday: Going for Olympic — Silver?

Have you been watching the Olympics? I’ve always loved the Olympic Games. There’s always so much drama as the best athletes in the world compete for gold. But did you know they are mostly competing for silver? True story. There is very little gold in an Olympic gold medal.

Fed Balance Sheet July 2021: 143B Added

The Federal Reserve has three primary tools to conduct Monetary Policy: reserve requirements, the discount rate, and open market operations (Quantitative Easing). Open market operations are how the Fed uses its balance sheet to provide liquidity to the market. More details can be found here. The Fed defines Open Market Operations as:

All You Do to Me Is Talk Talk! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap July 30, 2021

The Federal Reserve held its July meeting this week. Once again, it didn’t do anything. But there was certainly plenty of talk to dissect. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey does just that with some analysis of the messaging coming out of the Fed meeting, along with a look at […]

It’s Game Over if the Markets Call the Fed’s Bluff

The Federal Reserve insists inflation is “transitory” and the economy is making “progress.” Yet, it continues with the extraordinary monetary policy it launched at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, we’re seeing all kinds of data hinting that the economy may not be as great as advertised. Despite this, and even as prices continue […]

A Whole Lot of Talk, No Action at the Latest Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its July meeting on Wednesday. Once again, there was a whole lot of talk and no action. The Fed kept interest rates at zero. The Fed kept its quantitative easing program rolling. The Fed didn’t do anything. But the Fed had plenty to say.

Money Supply July 2021: Growth Rate Sees Massive Drop

M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of Money in the financial system. The Fed defines M2 as: Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Historically, […]

India Gold Market Shows Signs of Life as COVID Second Wave Eases

India ranks as the second-largest gold-consuming country in the world, second only behind China, but demand has languished for the last couple of years. The pandemic crushed demand, particularly for gold jewelry, but record-high gold prices in rupee terms and government policy put a drag on the gold market even before COVID-19. There were signs of […]