Peter's Blog

Commercial Real Estate Bond Distress Reaches Record High

From the national debt to negative jobs reports, data has been piling up that suggests America’s economic bubble is ready to burst. Now, with the Fed’s most recent round of rate cuts moving through the economy, fault lines are appearing in the commercial real estate sector. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

Flattening Yield Curve is the Calm Before the Storm

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

If 10-Year Yields Surpass 5%, Say Hello to QE (and Massive Inflation)

The wizards at the Fed and US Treasury have been forced to acknowledge that their “transitory,” inflation is, in fact, quite “sticky.” And with the inflation elephant now acknowledged by the circus of high finance, Treasury yields keep inching up, recently reaching 4.7% — the highest since November. The Fed is stuck: It needs to raise interest rates to tame inflation and […]

Junk Bond Default Surge Continues in 2024

Consumers aren’t the only ones defaulting on their debts: Corporate bond defaults were up massively in 2023, especially for high-risk junk debt, and the trend is continuing this year at a pace not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unsurprisingly, companies selling low-rated junk debt are being hit the worst.

The Real Problem Begins After Congress Raises the Debt Ceiling

The debt ceiling fight is getting down to the wire. In a letter to Congress on Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that without a debt ceiling increase, it was highly likely the government wouldn’t be able to meet all of its obligations by “early June, and potentially as early as June 1.” Despite the […]

Fed Officials Claim They Can Shrink the Balance Sheet a Lot More; They Can’t

Federal Reserve officials insist they can still shrink the balance sheet significantly more than they already have. You can file this assertion under the same category as “inflation is transitory,” and “the problems in the subprime mortgage market are contained.” In other words, Fed officials have detached from reality — again.

Jim Grant: We’ve Not Seen the Last of This Inflationary Outburst

With the rate of increase in the CPI slowing, many people in the mainstream think the Federal Reserve is winning the war on inflation. In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff said this is wishful thinking. He said that the Fed is losing the war and it will ultimately surrender to inflation. Schiff is not alone […]

Crying Wolf? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Dec. 23, 2022

Are the people who are predicting a big economic crash right? Or are they just crying wolf? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains why it’s hard to predict the exact timing of a crash even if you’re certain it’s on the horizon. He also talks about a couple […]

In Surprise Move Bank of Japan Allows Bond Yields to Rise

While most central banks around the world have tightened monetary policy in an attempt to bring price inflation under control, Japan has done the exact opposite. But in a surprise move, the Bank of Japan widened its target range for 10-year Japanese bond yields, effectively raising the interest rate. The move strengthened the yen, put […]

Treasury Market Liquidity and Volatility Problems Could Derail Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Interest rate hikes get most of the attention as the Federal Reserve fights inflation, but balance sheet reduction is arguably more important. And it’s not going well. Since the Fed stopped buying Treasuries and started letting bonds fall off its books as they mature, the bond market has experienced increasing volatility and liquidity problems. In […]