Peter's Blog

Is the Pivot in Play? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap April 14, 2023

With the CPI coming in slightly cooler than expected and producer prices unexpectedly falling, a lot of people think the Fed pivot is now in play and we will soon see an end to monetary tightening. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the possibility of a pivot, […]

Getting CPI Back to 2% Is a Fantasy

The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.

The CPI Mirage

Price inflation continued to cool with March headline annual CPI coming in at 5%. This was lower than expected and may give the Federal Reserve some wiggle room to slow down or even end rate hikes. But it’s a mirage. Despite the cooling trend, price inflation remains well above the Fed’s target and victory in […]

February CPI: Six Percent Is Bigger Than Two Percent

The annual rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February came in at 6%. This was down from the 6.4% annual increase charted in January. The eighth straight monthly decline in CPI seems to have restored faith that the Federal Reserve is winning the inflation fight. But everybody should probably stop and remember that […]

Falling Energy Prices Disguise a Relatively Hot CPI

The CPI came in at 0.37% for the month of February. While this was in line with expectations, it is still a 4.5% annualized increase in prices. And falling energy prices made the CPI look cooler than it actually was.

Peter Schiff: History Shows It’s Impossible to Put the Inflation Genie Back in the Bottle

The markets basically shrugged off the hotter-than-expected inflation data for January. Most people remain convinced that the Fed can easily get price inflation back to 2% without wrecking the economy. But in his podcast, Peter explains that stuffing that inflation genie back into the bottle is a lot harder than most people seem to think.

Peter Schiff: Here’s Why Inflation Is Going to Get Worse

The January CPI report threw cold water on the idea that the Federal Reserve has inflation under control. While the headline annual CPI came down a tick to 6.4%, month-on-month prices rose by 0.5%. After the data came out, Peter Schiff appeared on NTD News to explain why inflation is going to get even worse.

Garbage In, Garbage Out: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Feb. 17, 2023

Garbage in, garbage out. The phrase is usually associated with computers, but it also applies to the formulas used to generate government economic data. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey goes over the January CPI and retail sales data with that phrase in mind.

Upward CPI Revisions Further Undercut Disinflation Narrative

CPI came in hotter than expected in January and threw cold water on the “disinflation” narrative that was gaining steam in the mainstream. Less-reported were the revisions of past CPI data. These undercut that narrative even further. The CPI data for October, November and December were all revised higher.

CPI: Relief from the SPR Drain has Ended

With the CPI losing the relief from cooling energy prices, this month showed a solid uptick in prices, coming in at 0.54% (~6.6% annualized).