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As the west muddles through murky economic waters, many call on the Federal Reserve to hold off a recession. But, as our neighbors to the east show us, central banks are highly constrained in what they can actually accomplish, and more inflation isn’t the right move.
Consumers may be breathing a small sigh of relief, but they’re hardly celebrating. The University of Michigan’s latest “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” update, released Friday, shows the median expectation for inflation over the next 5 years dipping to 4.0 % in June after topping out at 4.4 % in April. While that is […]
Last week’s inflation data confirms what many economists have been saying for months: the Fed’s inflation target is not achievable anytime soon. In fact, many economic signals suggest the opposite: inflation is here to stay, and even the Fed realizes it.
Mounting economic uncertainties and persistent inflation are sending shockwaves through the global market, triggering a surge in demand for precious metals. As investors are seeking a safe haven, gold and silver are experiencing skyrocketing demand, leading to significant shifts in national reserves and logistical challenges in the precious metals market.
On Sunday, Peter revived his Sunday night podcast habit for a special President’s Day themed episode. In it he reflects on the character of George Washington and how far the country’s economic health has fallen since the founding of our country. President Trump can follow Washington’s example if he wants to get the country back […]
On Wednesday evening, Peter took to his podcast to cover the week’s big economic headline: inflation is still running hot. In this episode he covers this week’s alarming CPI figures and the political fallout they caused. These metrics highlight just how unprepared Powell and the Fed are for coming stagflation.
Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.
A recent article in the New York Times is reassuring. It assures us that while the recent CPI print showed inflation was running hot, not to worry! When measured in terms of “core” inflation, which “gives us a better idea of the underlying trend,” inflation actually isn’t so bad. And that underlying trend requires that […]
Today’s mainstream political narrative would have you believe that inflation is permanently cooling. The data tells a different story, with the money supply growing faster now than it has for more than the last two years.
In this mid-week episode, Peter analyzes recent PPI and CPI reports, reiterates his September rate-hike prediction, and comments on the Tump-Musk X interview that garnered the country’s attention on Monday. He also diagnoses the source of high housing and education costs that have made the economy feel so brutal to everyday Americans.
This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.
