Peter's Blog

Comex Results February Becomes the Month of Adjustments

There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

The Fed Pulls Back on Treasuries but Dives in on Mortgage-Backed Securities

Even with the taper, the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet. And it’s not tapering the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) nearly as fast as advertised.

Unrounded MoM CPI Was 0.65%; Price Increases Are Widespread

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.65% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.48%. Both of these numbers came in above expectations. As hypothesized last month, it was very possible that Omicron temporarily restrained inflation in December and a rebound should be expected. It did not take long for […]

Don’t Get Too Excited; Most of These Revised Job Gains Were Already Counted

January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday. However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is […]

What is the Comex Gold Market Signaling?

As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery […]

Money Supply Grew 13.1% in 2021 – Is It Enough to Keep the Bubble Going?

M2 increased by $201 billion in December. This represents a 0.94% MoM increase which annualizes to 11.9%. For the entire year of 2021, M2 grew by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 13.1%! This is extremely rapid money supply growth! The Fed can taper their asset purchases, but shrinking the Money Supply is the only way […]

Is Omicron Hiding Much Higher Inflation?

The CPI for December was 0.5% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0%. As the chart below shows, the December data reinforced a downward trend we’ve seen since a .95% reading in October. But is the recent omicron COVID spike hiding much higher inflation?

Has the Taper Finally Started? Who Will Fill the Massive Gap?

While on the surface, it appears the Federal Reserve asset purchase taper has started, it’s not as easy to prove when you dig into the details. The Fed is certainly not being as aggressive as they promised, and for good reason. As the Fed leaves the bond market, who will fill the gap? Since 2019, […]

November Money Supply: Similar and Different to November 1972

Despite talk about a war on inflation and a quantitative easing taper, the money supply continues to expand at a rapid clip, fanning the inflationary fire. M2 increased by $249.2B in November.

Federal Tax Revenues Surge 20% – Will it Last?

The federal government continues to run big budget deficits as spending skyrockets. Increasing tax revenues are the only thing keeping the deficits from blowing up even further. But how long will this tax windfall last?