Peter's Blog

Federal Tax Revenues Surge 20% – Will it Last?

The federal government continues to run big budget deficits as spending skyrockets. Increasing tax revenues are the only thing keeping the deficits from blowing up even further. But how long will this tax windfall last?

Expectations Are Finally High Enough for Sky High Inflation

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for November was .76% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.81%. These numbers were generally in line with mainstream expectations that have finally gotten high enough to match the blistering hot inflation numbers coming out month after month.

US Debt: The Landscape Has Changed and the Fed Can Do Nothing About it

Similar to August and September, the total national debt has not increased due to the current debt ceiling that’s in place. Similar to August, the Treasury has raided public retirement accounts to continue funding government spending (light green bar below). Looking at the bigger picture, Covid has forever shifted the landscape of US Debt.

What Taper? Fed Adds $126 Billion to Balance Sheet in November

The Fed added $82 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and $65 billion in Treasuries to its balance sheet while allowing $22 billion in repo agreements to roll off the balance sheet. The net gain was $126 billion in the month that the “taper” was set to begin.

Will Gold Blast Through $1900 on a Brainard Nomination This Weekend?

Gold finally broke through the $1,800 resistance after yet another sizzling hot CPI read. Could $1,900 be next? The analysis last month and the month before showed that a breakout in the price of gold looked to be very close. It happened!

Budget Deficit Represents More Than 35% of Total Federal Expenditures

The federal budget deficit in October came in at $165 billion. That represents a staggering 36.8% of total expenditures for the month. This is slightly below the 12-month average where the deficit represented 39.3% of total expenditures. Over the twelve-month period, the total deficit was $2.65 trillion driven by total expenditures that reached $6.7 trillion. […]

Analysis: CPI Blasts Past Expectations; Price Increases Widespread

The October CPI data came in even hotter than expected, and we saw widespread price increases across multiple categories. The following provides an in-depth analysis of the most recent CPI data.

Did the Fed Experiment With a Mini-Taper and Fail?

The Federal Reserve has slightly slowed its asset purchases over the last few months. Was this a trial mini-taper? If so, the results are not good news for the central bankers over at the Fed. The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.56 trillion. That’s up by $108 billion from the prior month-end, but down over […]

Money Supply Grows Almost 10% Annualized and Nears $21 Trillion

In the latest period, M2 increased by $163 billion and sits just shy of $21 trillion. This represents a 0.78% MoM increase which annualizes to 9.8%. This is below last month’s rise of $254B and last September’s rise of $223B.

Fiscal Spending Up 18.7% MoM and 4.1% YoY

The federal budget deficit for September 2021 was $61.5 billion, down from the $171 billion in August. Even though the deficit fell 64% MoM, it was driven primarily by receipts. Spending was up 18.7% MoM but receipts were up 71.2% driven by a surge in corporate and individual taxes.