Peter's Blog

Quantitative Easing Has Seemingly Ended (for now)

It appears quantitative easing has pretty much come to an end. At least for now. Although the Fed was still expanding the balance sheet through mid-month, it only added a net $9B to the balance sheet during March. This was accomplished with moderate purchases of short- and long-term debt, while 5–10-year notes had a $20B […]

Biggest Federal Budget Deficit Since July; This Is Bad News for the Fed

If you thought the federal government running a budget surplus in January was a sign that Washington D.C. was getting its fiscal house in order, you’re going to be disappointed. Uncle Sam ran the biggest deficit since last July in February.

Inflation Up 0.8% Month-on-Month and Shows No Sign of Slowing

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.8% month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted annual rate came in at 7.87%. Both of these numbers were slightly above expectations. Unlike last year, where one component made up the bulk of the move, the past several months have shown increases more evenly spread across the […]

February was a Strong Jobs Report Across All Measures

February was another very strong jobs month with the economy adding an estimated 678,000 jobs vs an expected 400,000. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, down from 4%. Labor force participation also improved, rising from 62.2% to 62.3%. Both December and January numbers were revised upwards.

Comex Results February Becomes the Month of Adjustments

There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

The Fed Pulls Back on Treasuries but Dives in on Mortgage-Backed Securities

Even with the taper, the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet. And it’s not tapering the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) nearly as fast as advertised.

Unrounded MoM CPI Was 0.65%; Price Increases Are Widespread

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.65% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.48%. Both of these numbers came in above expectations. As hypothesized last month, it was very possible that Omicron temporarily restrained inflation in December and a rebound should be expected. It did not take long for […]

Don’t Get Too Excited; Most of These Revised Job Gains Were Already Counted

January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday. However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is […]

What is the Comex Gold Market Signaling?

As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery […]

Money Supply Grew 13.1% in 2021 – Is It Enough to Keep the Bubble Going?

M2 increased by $201 billion in December. This represents a 0.94% MoM increase which annualizes to 11.9%. For the entire year of 2021, M2 grew by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 13.1%! This is extremely rapid money supply growth! The Fed can taper their asset purchases, but shrinking the Money Supply is the only way […]