Peter's Blog

Price Stability, Economic Instability: The Fed’s Contradiction

The Fed insists that a stable price level is the mark of a healthy economy, but stability in the headline number tells us nothing about the money supply distortions happening underneath it. Chasing a two percent target still requires manipulating interest rates and credit creation, and it is precisely that manipulation, not the price index, […]

13 Week Money Supply Grows at Fastest Rate for June since 2021

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Stakes Higher Than Finance: Shylock and the Central Bank

The dramatic heart of the play, Merchant of Venice, centers around a deal that turns a bad financial decision into a matter much more serious than money. In a situation where the titular merchant, Antonio, seeks to help out a friend in a time of social need, Shylock the moneylender gives him a loan of […]

Why Are The Markets Wrong?

The role of the market as a creator and processor of information is central to Austrian economics. Prices should reflect the collective evaluation of everyone in the market as they utilize their own constrained resources. While the Austrian theory holds the market to be an important creator of information, it does provides a compelling answer […]

Forget Stocks, Buy Pokémon

“Buy Pokémon cards, not stocks” might seem like a ridiculous phrase until one examines the price history. The market over the past several years has been extremely volatile. From mid-February to early April of 2025, the S&P 500 pulled back nearly 20% from its all-time high, and even the ‘safe’ index of American blue-chip companies […]

Oil Shock, AI Boom Complicate Fed’s Path, Vice Chair Jefferson Says

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told an audience at Stanford University on July 16 that monetary policy is facing a “delicate balancing act,” as overlapping shocks from the Middle East conflict, post-pandemic imbalances, and newly erected trade barriers keep inflation above target and threaten to unmoor expectations. The remarks, delivered at the Stanford Institute […]

Warsh Vows “No Tolerance” for Inflation. Do We Believe Him?

In his first appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took a firm stance, telling lawmakers that the central bank has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Warsh confirmed that June’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting left the federal-funds-rate target unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, […]

Government Spending has Increased 89% since 2016 to $7.2T

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of […]

Waller Hints at Rate Hike as Core Inflation Reignites

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used a speech before the New York Association for Business Economics on July 13th to deliver one of his most direct warnings of the year: core inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Federal Open Market Committee may have to tighten again. After six months of relative calm, core […]

Fed Tries to Talk Tough on Inflation in Annual Report

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]