Peter's Blog

Budget Deficit: Annual Interest Expense Increases 40% Compared to Last October

The Federal Government ran a deficit of $88B in October which is down significantly from the deficit last month that was a record for September due to the student loan forgiveness program. The deficit is also down compared to last October which was -$165B.

Perception Is Reality? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Nov. 11, 2022

They say perception is reality. Based on the October CPI data, the perception is inflation has peaked. But what’s the reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the CPI data along with the markets’ reaction to it and wonders if the inflation victory dance is a little […]

CPI: Annualized Pace of Increase Still Over 5%

The perception is that CPI cooled significantly in October, but the data doesn’t quite bear this out. The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for September came in at 0.44%. The YoY rate was 7.7%, or 7.8% when adjusting for Household Ops. which has not been consistently reported over the last year. The increase was actually […]

Peter Schiff: The Gold Train Has Left the Station

Gold rallied by over $50 an ounce last Friday and the rally has extended into this week with the yellow metal moving back above $1,700 an ounce. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained why he thinks that gold has bottomed and this is a significant reversal.

Central Bank Gold Buying Hit Historically High Levels in the Third Quarter

Central banks added nearly 400 tons of gold in the third quarter, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council. This was 300% higher than Q3 2021 and came in as the largest quarterly increase in central bank gold reserves since the World Gold Council started keeping records in 2000.

National Debt Analysis: Treasury Prepares for Another Debt Ceiling Saga

Another debt ceiling fight is looming on the horizon and it appears the US Treasury Department is preparing for the drama. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are rapidly increasing the cost of the massive national debt.

Jobs Report: Only Education and Government are Above Trend

Despite the better-than-expected headline number, the job market continues to slow. According to the BLS, the economy added 261k jobs in October with a big upward revision in September from 263k to 315k. October was a beat against median expectations of 205k. The employment rate (black line) increased from 3.5% to 3.7% while the labor […]

Trade Deficit: The First Deficit Increase in Six Months

The September Trade Deficit increased for the first time in 6 months to -$73.3B. The deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. As shown by the chart below, the increase this month was from a drop in Exports combined with an increase in Imports. The current value is still […]

A Wing and a Prayer: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast Nov. 4, 2022

The Federal Reserve delivered a 75-basis point rate hike at its November meeting, as expected. But what’s next? That’s a little harder to decipher. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the mixed messaging that came out of the Fed meeting and concludes the central bank’s monetary policy […]

Gold Demand Charts Healthy Increase in Q3

Gold demand rose 28% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer demand for physical gold and central bank buying, according to data released by the World Gold Council. Year-to-date, demand is up 18% compared to the same period in 2021, a return to prepandemic levels.