Peter's Blog

US Debt: The Sting of Higher Interest Rates is Just Getting Started

The Treasury increased the total debt by $27B in June. Activity slowed in the latest month across all instruments, but particularly the conversion of short-term to long-term. After massive moves to extend debt maturity and shrink short-term debt by $530B over 4 months (shown below by the large negative turquoise bars), July went very quiet.

Jobs Report: Be Careful What You Wish For

According to the BLS, the economy added 528k jobs in July, blasting past analyst estimates of 250k. The strong report comes on the heels of a Fed meeting last week that made a point to state they are hyper-focused on the job market as a sign of a weakening economy. The White House and Fed […]

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Aug. 5, 2022

Jobs are on everybody’s mind as the July employment report comes out. Will the labor market show more cracks? Or will it give the pundits more room to spin the idea that we’re not really in a recession? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the labor market and […]

Is a Falling Trade Deficit Further Proof of Recession?

The June trade deficit fell for a fourth straight month to -$79.6B. While the deficit continues to drop from all-time highs, it is still larger than any month before 2022. June eclipsed December 2021 by $750M. December was a new record then, so the current deficit should be put into the context of longer history […]

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Are the Gold Shorts About to Get Squeezed?

Please note: the COT report was published 7/29/2022 for the period ending 7/26/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. As discussed last month, overall net positioning is the smallest it has been since May 2019. Then, on July 12, Managed Money went short gold for the first time since April 2019. Are those shorts […]

Gold Demand Up 12% Through First Half of ’22 Despite Tepid Second Quarter

Gold demand through the first half of 2022 came in at 2,189 tons, up 12% over the first half of last year, according to the World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 report.

Comex Deliveries: August Gold Starts Strong

Delivery volume in the July gold contract got off to the weakest start in years, but then had a major mid-month rally, turning it into one of the strongest minor months in recent history. Over the last 15 months, it only trailed the blow-out month of March. Momentum has continued in the August contract.

Spin Cycle: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap July 29, 2022

This week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75 basis points despite a second straight quarter of negative GDP growth. Meanwhile, Congress is debating a big government spending bill to “reduce inflation.” In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey tries to unspin all of the spin and government propaganda to make […]

Fed Balance Sheet Reduction: Too Little Too Late

Another month in and the Fed is still struggling to implement Quantitative Tightening (QT). According to the plan the Fed outlined last May, the central bank should be shrinking the balance sheet by at least $47.5B a month, spread between $30B in Treasuries and $17.5B in MBS. That’s not happening.

Money Supply Growth Rate Drops Below 2008 Level

Money Supply growth is falling rapidly. Two of the last three months have seen a decrease in the seasonally adjusted M2 Money Supply with the recent month dropping $17B. Given that April was the first contraction in 12 years, two of the last three months being negative is an ominous sign.