Peter's Blog

What’s the Difference Between Naturally and Artificially Low Interest Rates?

We know that the Federal Reserve pushes interest rates artificially low by manipulating the federal funds rate (the target interest rate that commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other) and using monetary policy maneuvers such as quantitative easing. But could we have low interest rates without Fed intervention? In this clip, […]

Fed Absorbs $60B of 1 to 5-Year US Treasuries in September

The Fed keeps talk, talk, talking about tapering quantitative easing, but the balance sheet continues to get bigger and bigger and bigger. The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.45 trillion, up by$115 billion from the prior month-end.

Does the Fed Really Want a “Bond Market Tantrum”?

A Reuters article by Stefano Rebaudo argued that the Federal Reserve might welcome a “bond market tantrum” that pushes bond yields higher. But does the Fed really want higher interest rates? And what would that mean for the economy? Despite the post-pandemic economic improvement and wide expectations that the Fed will begin tapering quantitative easing […]

Breaking Down the $171 Billion August Federal Budget Deficit

The Federal Budget Deficit for August 2021 was $171B which was down from the $302B in July. The chart below shows the Federal Budget for the previous 18 months.

Peter Schiff: Jerome Powell Tapers the Taper Talk

Jerome Powell delivered his much-anticipated speech virtually during the Jackson Hole summit on Aug. 27. Peter Schiff talked about the speech during his podcast. Everybody expected a hawkish speech outlining the Fed’s plan to taper quantitative easing. Instead, Powell tapered the taper talk.

Markets Are Moving on a Fantasy

We’ve seen a sharp selloff in both gold and silver. Gold was down over $40 an ounce Friday. Meanwhile, the US dollar saw a sharp increase, along with a rise in long-term Treasury yields. The catalyst for these sharp moves was a better-than-expected jobs report and expectation that it will spark a quick pivot to […]

Central Banks Have Created the Mother of All Bubbles

The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have pumped trillions of dollars into the global economy and depressed interest rates to artificially low levels to blow up the mother of all bubbles. The recent acquisition of Afterpay by Square reveals the extent of this global bubble economy that will inevitably have to […]

A Whole Lot of Talk, No Action at the Latest Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its July meeting on Wednesday. Once again, there was a whole lot of talk and no action. The Fed kept interest rates at zero. The Fed kept its quantitative easing program rolling. The Fed didn’t do anything. But the Fed had plenty to say.

Since When Is a Little Rate Hike Years From Now Hawkish?

Markets reacted strongly to what many considered “hawkish” messaging coming out of the June Federal Reserve meeting. But is the Fed really taking a “hawkish” position? Peter Schiff said the Fed was engaging in a “no stick” monetary policy. And in his Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey argued the Fed was a dove in […]

What Does the Fed Know About the Future?

Central bankers at the Federal Reserve are talking a lot about what’s going to happen in the future. But what do they really know about what lies ahead? The fact is, they don’t know a whole lot. But we do know one thing for sure – the debt in the US isn’t going away. It’s […]