Peter's Blog

Just What the Fed Ordered! CPI Comes In Lower Than Projections

The Federal Reserve got just what it needed – an even cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report card for June. This could give the central bank a plausible excuse to back off its inflation fight. But make no mistake, inflation isn’t dead or buried.

Jim Grant: We Could Be Heading Toward a Generational Bear Market in Bonds

In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff warned that we could be on the verge of a further breakdown in the bond market and that a bear market in bonds could also maul US stocks and the dollar. Financial commentator and investment guru Jim Grant has similar concerns. In a recent interview on Odd Lots Podcast, […]

The Federal Reserve Should Invest in a Dartboard

Most people believe members of the Federal Reserve are highly trained experts who are imminently qualified to run monetary policy.  Guided by this perception, the mainstream treats Fed pronouncements as gospel. But if you compare Fed projections to actual outcomes, it looks like they’re just guessing. In fact, you would probably get more accurate results […]

Fed People Saying Stuff: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap July 7, 2023

Despite doing nothing at the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials continue to talk tough about fighting inflation. The anticipation of another rate hike created headwinds for both stocks and gold this week. But Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey thinks something is amiss. In this episode, he talks about the disconnect between the central bankers’ […]

The Private Sector Recession

The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates to levels not seen since before the financial crisis in 2008. The money supply had contracted at a rapid rate. This should cause the economy to slow down. Yet month after month, we get strong job numbers, rosy economic headlines, and assurances that the economy remains robust. What […]

Things Happen Slowly and Then All at Once: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast June 30, 2023

There was a lot of economic data this month that seems to signal a strong economy. Does it though? Is everything really fine? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs deeper into the data and reveals a less sanguine reality. He also explains the inner workings of the spot price […]

What’s Going on With the Fed Balance Sheet?

We tend to focus a lot on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while the central bank’s balance sheet stays in the background. But the balance sheet arguably has more impact on the economy over the long run. Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, it has also shrunk the balance sheet. […]

Jerome Powell’s Open-Mouth Operations

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday (June 21). The Fed chief engaged in some more open-mouth operations, trying to guide monetary policy with words instead of actions. To understand a few things he said, you have to read between the lines. Oh, and he also got at […]

Mainstream Perception vs. Economic Reality: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast June 16

There is the mainstream and market perception of what going on in the economy and financial system. And then there’s the underlying economic reality. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the growing divergence between the two in the context of the June Federal Reserve meeting and the […]

Have We Seen the Last Fed Rate Hike of This Cycle?

As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) put rate hikes on pause at the June meeting, although it indicated we should expect additional hikes before the end of the year. The question is how long will the pause last and will the next Fed move actually be a rate cut?