Peter's Blog

Money Supply Growth Rate Sees an Epic Divergence from Previous Years

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in October was negative for a third consecutive month, coming in at -$88B. This came on the heels of the largest drop in Money Supply ever last month.

Money Supply Growth Rate Still Negative

Money Supply shrunk last month by $129B, the largest monthly fall ever going back to 1959. April and June also set records at the time from a gross change perspective. From a percentage amount, Feb. 1970 had been the largest contraction ever (-6.5% annualized), but the current month beat that number at -6.9% annualized.

Collapse in Money Supply Is Still a Major Risk for the Market

Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

13-Week Money Supply Growth Hits Multi-Decade Low

Money Supply growth was positive in July at $42B but sits well below the $161B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with 5 straight months above $200B whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

Money Supply Growth Rate Drops Below 2008 Level

Money Supply growth is falling rapidly. Two of the last three months have seen a decrease in the seasonally adjusted M2 Money Supply with the recent month dropping $17B. Given that April was the first contraction in 12 years, two of the last three months being negative is an ominous sign.

Slowdown in Money Creation Could Be Another Recession Signal

The slowdown in money creation could be signaling a recession. The growth in the money supply has dropped precipitously over the last several months. As measured by M2, the money supply expanded by 6.6% year on year. That was down from April’s growth rate of 8.21%. In  May 2021, M2 grew by 14.30%. M2 growth […]

Money Supply Growth Slows Enough to Pop Everything Bubble; Not Enough to Cure Inflation

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 increased by $23B in May. Except for the contraction last month (the first contraction in 12 years), it was the smallest monthly increase in M2 since the start of COVID.

Monthly M2 Shrinks for the First Time in Over 12 Years

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 contracted by $83B in April. The Money Supply analysis last month highlighted the slowing money supply growth rate, but this is the first contraction seen since January 2010.

Sound Money and Freedom — Two Sides of the Same Coin

If you want freedom, you need sound money. So, argues economist Ludwig von Mises. It is impossible to grasp the meaning of the idea of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments. Ideologically it […]

Money Supply Growth Rate Continues to Decelerate

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $59B in March. While the money supply is expanding, this is the slowest increase since June of 2021. It’s also almost $200B less than the $238B expansion last March.