Peter's Blog

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole podium on Friday to draw a bright line around the central bank’s credibility, declaring that the long-promised 2 percent inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is “a firm, fixed target.” Price stability, he said, “is not self-executing…it’s the Fed’s job to deliver stable […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

The Fed insists that a stable price level is the mark of a healthy economy, but stability in the headline number tells us nothing about the money supply distortions happening underneath it. Chasing a two percent target still requires manipulating interest rates and credit creation, and it is precisely that manipulation, not the price index, […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Keynesian economists often attribute economic downturns to insufficient aggregate demand, arguing that government intervention is necessary to boost spending and restore growth. However, this theory fails to recognize that consumer demand is not an independent variable but rather a consequence of prior production and savings. The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. […]

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]

Mainstream economists often argue that increasing the money supply is necessary to stimulate economic growth. However, Austrian economists have long recognized that monetary expansion merely creates the illusion of prosperity while sowing the seeds of future crises. Printing money cannot create real wealth or productive resources, but instead distorts economic calculation and leads to malinvestment. […]

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/26/2026 for the period ending 06/23/2026. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet As soon as the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening they launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. As shown […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]