Peter's Blog

Rebound in Money Supply Will Prove Too Little, Too Late

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in May increased $131B. This is the first growth in adjusted M2 since last July and the largest increase since December 2021.

13-Week Money Supply Growth Crashes to -7.2%

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in April fell $167B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 9th consecutive monthly drop. This is also the second-largest drop of all time, behind only last month.

13-Week Money Supply Reaches New All-Time Low

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in March fell $257B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 8th consecutive monthly drop. Going back to the 1970s, the drop in March was actually the biggest on record on an absolute and relative basis.

Money Supply Is Flashing Red

The seasonally adjusted Money Supply in February fell $121B and the Money Supply in January was revised from positive $31B to -$142B. This is a major revision and now means the Money Supply has fallen for seven straight months.

Money Supply Remains Well Below Trend

The seasonally adjusted money supply in January increased by $31 billion. This was the first increase in the money supply in five months.

Shrinking Money Supply Undercuts “Soft Landing” Narrative

The better-than-expected non-farm payroll report for January along with the smaller interest rate hike delivered by the Federal Reserve at its February meeting increased optimism that the central bank can bring price inflation back to 2% without tanking the economy. But the shrinking money supply undercuts this soft landing narrative.

Money Supply Shrinks in 2022 for the First Time on Record

For the first time ever, the money supply contracted on an annual basis in 2022. The seasonally adjusted Money Supply in December was negative for a fifth consecutive month, coming in at -$147B. This was the largest monthly contraction in M2 going back to 1959. This type of contraction typically does not happen!

Money Supply Growth Continues Massive Divergence from History

The 13-week annualized non-seasonally adjusted money supply growth rate is crashing at a time when it typically moves up. The market is becoming increasingly more vulnerable to a major event in the weeks or months ahead. Let’s take a look at the data…

Money Supply Growth Rate Sees an Epic Divergence from Previous Years

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in October was negative for a third consecutive month, coming in at -$88B. This came on the heels of the largest drop in Money Supply ever last month.

Money Supply Growth Rate Still Negative

Money Supply shrunk last month by $129B, the largest monthly fall ever going back to 1959. April and June also set records at the time from a gross change perspective. From a percentage amount, Feb. 1970 had been the largest contraction ever (-6.5% annualized), but the current month beat that number at -6.9% annualized.