Peter's Blog

The US Treasury Is Running Low on Credit

The US is on the brink of a debt disaster, spiraling into $33 trillion of debt. That is over 180% of GDP.  The cause? Skyrocketing government spending matched with insufficient tax revenues, leading to ever-deepening deficits. The US Treasury is now low on credit and out of time. Interest payments on this colossal debt have […]

Treasury Prints Second Largest February Budget Deficit Ever

The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$262B in February. Ignoring the Student Loan forgiveness allocation in September last year, this is the largest monthly budget deficit since July 2021. And it’s the second-largest February deficit ever.

The Treasury Begins Extraordinary Measures (again)

Despite hitting the debt ceiling, the US Treasury managed to add $35 billion in new debt during January. The Treasury has employed extraordinary measures, including exchanging Non-Marketable (e.g., Government employee retirement funds) and other forms of debt for short-term Bills. The balance on Bills grew by $241 billion which was the largest single-month growth since […]

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Over the last 18 months, the Treasury has aggressively converted short-term debt to longer-term debt. This can be seen in the chart below with the turquoise bars being negative.

Treasury Runs Largest August Deficit Ever as Interest Costs Soar

The federal government ran a $220 billion deficit in August. It was the largest monthly deficit since last July.

Treasury Interest Cost Will Soar Past $500B in the Months Ahead

The US government increased its total debt by $69 billion in June. The average interest rate on all of that debt is also going up, a growing problem for the borrow and spend government. The Treasury Department continues to roll short-term Treasury Bills into longer-dated securities, allowing $148B in Bills to roll off the debt […]

Treasury Scrambles to Lock in Rates as Borrowing Cost Soars

The Treasury increased the total debt by $125B in May after a brief drop in April. This brings the total debt increase so far in 2022 to $880B. More importantly, though, the cost to service the debt is exploding. Total annualized interest has increased by $40B or 13.5% since the start of the year!

Treasury Borrows $2.27 Trillion in 12-Month Period

The Treasury ran a budget deficit of $193B in the month of March. This exceeded the 12-month average of $144B. Over the last year, the Treasury has seen a massive influx of Individual tax revenues that have helped support the ballooning Federal Deficit. Unfortunately, spending has been so high that the additional revenue did not […]

Annualized Interest on US Debt Increased $16.4 Billion in Just 6 Months

The US Treasury added $111 billion in debt during March. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are already creating problems for Uncle Sam. Annualized interest on the US debt has increased by over $16 billion in just six months. Following is an analysis of US debt holdings.

Treasury Runs Largest Deficit in 8 Months After First Surplus in 2.5 Years

In January, the US Treasury realized its first surplus in 2.5 years. The surplus was short-lived. The Treasury went in the red by $216.6 billion in February.