Peter's Blog

Treasury Adds $1.1T of debt in last 4 months and $2T YTD

Current Trends The Treasury has still been issuing tons of short-term debt to finance exploding deficits. In the last 4 months, $1.1T in new debt has been added, with the vast majority being financed by debt maturing in less than 10 years. Over $400B has been debt maturing in less than 1 year. This will […]

The Fed Dramatically Slows the Pace of QT

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Flattening Yield Curve is the Calm Before the Storm

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

The Yield Curve & Christine Lagarde Agree — Don’t Expect A “Soft Landing”

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.

Yield Curve Inversions Flashing Recession Warning Signal

We’ve seen a number of inversions in the Treasury bond yield curve over the last couple of weeks. This is a recession warning signal. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said the markets are right about the looming recession. But they’re not getting the whole picture.

Recession Warning! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Aug. 16, 2019

The bond market flashed a major recession warning sign as the yield curve inverted this week. Meanwhile, Trump whipsawed markets when he appeared to blink in the never-ending trade war with China. That made for an interesting week for gold. In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the events of […]

Yield Curve Inverts Flashing Recession Warning; Stocks Plunge

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below the yield on the 2-year for the first time in 12 years, stoking recession fears and tanking stock markets. Yield curve inversions have preceded all nine recessions since 1955.  This was the first time the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below the 2-year yield since June 2007 […]

Recession Early Warning? US Yield Curve Inverts

Peter Schiff has said a recession is a done deal. Since he made that comment, we’ve seen more and more signs of a looming economic downturn.  On Friday, we got another. The yield curve inverted, historically a sign of a looming recession. The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell below the yield on 3-year bonds for […]

Peter Schiff Talks Yield Curves, Inflation and the Looming Recession

Last month, we reported that the global yield curve inverted, signaling the possibility of a looming recession. While narrowing to levels not seen since right before the 2008 financial crisis, the yield curve has not inverted in the US. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said he doesn’t think it’s going to happen. He said […]

Average Global Yield Curve Inverts, Could Signal Looming Recession

The economy is strong! Or so the mainstream financial talking heads tell use every day. Meanwhile, one of the best predictors of a looming inflation is flashing red. The yield curve between the two and 10-year Treasuries narrowed to around 34 basis points this week. That’s the lowest level since 2007 – right before the financial […]