Peter's Blog

Current Trends The US government has borrowed nearly $450B in the last three months. While this is a gargantuan sum of money, it annualizes to ~$1.9T which would be the smallest year of borrowing since 2022. Unfortunately, the trend more likely to hold is the borrowing seen in Feb and March which clocked in at […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet As soon as the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening, they launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. As shown […]

Current Trends The government hit the debt ceiling back in January which blocked any net new debt from being created from January to June. Once the debt ceiling was lifted, the government wasted no time in catching up for all the months where borrowing was frozen. Over the last 7 months, the government borrowed an […]

Last week, Peter joined Everett Millman on the Verified Macro Report to lay out a clear, uncompromising case against the last several decades of monetary policy and to explain why he sees gold and silver—not fiat or most cryptocurrencies—as the natural refuge for investors. He ties the Fed’s policy errors to rising long-term rates, a […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has decided to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st. In late 2019, the Fed balance […]

After once criticising former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s strategy of increasing the Treasury’s share of short-term debt issuance, Scott Bessent has decided to continue the same strategy. It’s part of the Trump administration’s bid to keep long-term interest rates down. But by using fiscal tools to provide low-cost liquidity to financial markets, it’s a bailout […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Current Trends The Treasury has still been issuing tons of short-term debt to finance exploding deficits. In the last 4 months, $1.1T in new debt has been added, with the vast majority being financed by debt maturing in less than 10 years. Over $400B has been debt maturing in less than 1 year. This will […]